Amidst an overheating fight in Tigray, the AU-led peace-talk is presumably expected to take place in South Africa on Monday, October 24, 2022. Though the African Union Commission (AUC) did not formally disclose the new schedule after the initial schedule of October 8, 2022, was postponed, Ethiopian officials stated a new date had been fixed for October 24.
On October 20, 2022, Ambassador Redwan Hussein, national security advisor to PM Abiy Ahmed (PhD), tweeted, “AUC has informed us that the peace-talks is set for October 24, 2022 in South Africa.” The Ambassador also stated that the Ethiopian government has reconfirmed to participate in the peace-talk, though there was no such reciprocation or any mention of the new schedule from the TPLF side until Friday.
But Friday was rather a busy day for the mediators behind the AU-led peace talks. Both the UN Security Council (UNSC) and the AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) rushed to meetings on Friday to discuss Ethiopia’s case ahead of the supposed peace talks. The two councils deliberate mainly on how the AU-led peace talks should get off the ground and proceed.
On Friday morning, the Security Council convened for a private meeting on the situation in Ethiopia under the “Peace and Security in Africa” agenda item. The meeting was requested by the A3 members of the Council (Gabon, Ghana, and Kenya) on October 17. The AU High Representative for the Horn of Africa, Olusegun Obasanjo, and OCHA Director of Operations and Advocacy, Ghada Eltahir Mudawi, were summoned to brief on the updates. The A3 request came after the AUC chairperson, Moussa Faki Mahamat, called for an immediate, unconditional ceasefire. The UNSC meeting on Ethiopia is the second time since the war in Tigray resumed on October 24, 2022. The last time the council met behind closed doors was September 28, 2022. But the council meets for the fifteenth time since the conflict in northern Ethiopia broke out on November 4, 2020.
On the other hand, the AUPSC convened in Addis Ababa for its 1,115th session for a ‘Briefing on the AU-led peace process for Ethiopia’. The meeting was unforeseen and was not initially included in the monthly programme of work of the Council. Updates are provided to the PSC by Bankole Adeoye, Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace, and Security (AUPAPS), and Olusegun Obasanjo.Representatives of Ethiopia as well as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) also participated. AUPSC’s last meeting on Ethiopia was on August 4, 2022, at its 1097th session.
It was not clear why the two councils called for Obasanjo to be briefed on the same day. Of course, there have been a number of closed meetings and “back and forth’ between New York, Washington and Addis Ababa in the past week. The UNSC and AUPSC stated in their joint communiqué that the joint consultative meetings that have been ongoing since the UN general assembly have focused on deliberations on peace and security issues in Africa within the context of the UN-AU partnership.
Basically, AUPSC is a replica of the UNSC. Both usually meet behind closed doors. Even procedurally, both councils have member countries that chair rotating meetings on a monthly basis. AUPAPS usually acts as a secretary for the AUPSC. The AUPSC decides autonomously on peace and security issues or allows the AUC chairperson to make decisions. However, the AUPSC was not consulted in designating Olusegun Obasanjo as mediator for the conflict in Ethiopia. According to insiders, Moussa Faki, the AUC chairperson, directly picked Obasanjo for the mission without consulting the council. According to the insider, this breach of procedure has become a major factor in the TPLF’s decision to accept Obasanjo as a genuine mediator and a vehicle for the federal government’s interests.
Officials close to the issue who spoke to The Reporter on the condition of anonymity, also claim the proposed AU-peace-talk on October 24 is just bogus, as the federal government is already emerging as a winner.
Since the third round of war resumed on August 24, 2022, the balance of war has tilted fundamentally. The coalition of federal forces, which comprised of the ENDF, Amhara, and Eritrean forces, launched massive offensives in all directions against the rebels in Tigray.
After the federal government announced its objective to control “all airports, other federal facilities and installations” in Tigray, the Ethiopian forces disclosed they had captured strategic cities in Tigray. In October, the government disclosed it controlled Shire, Alamata, Korem and other cities in southern and western Tigray. The federal government also disclosed that basic services will soon resume in areas controlled by ENDF. The provision of basic services was previously tabled by TPLF as a precondition for the negotiation.
Leaders of the TPLF, the former ruling party that has become a fugitive and has been fighting the new regime in Addis Abeba for the past 23 months, are reportedly fleeing Mekele as the encirclement tightens.
The federal government’s move to take charge of the airports in Tigray is now another bone of contention regarding how the TPLF leaders can fly out of Tigray and attend the proposed peace talks in South Africa. The previous peace-talk scheduled for October 8 was postponed for logistical problems. Uhuru Kenyatta, the other factor for the postponement, is still on the panelists’ list.
According to insiders, TPLF is no longer in a position to negotiate or dictate terms.
“The peace-talk schedule for October 24 spontaneously came after the federal government announced it had controlled decisive areas in Tigray. Secondly, TPLF did not respond to the peace-talk call slated for October 24. The federal government is already a winner and in a position to set every term and condition. The peace-talk is just a matter of formality. “The TPLF might not turn up in South Africa,” said the official.
The new AU peace-talk schedule also seems to suit the USA’s interests, which has been caught up in a dilemma of whether to prioritize the conflict in Ukraine or Ethiopia. President Biden’s special envoy to the Horn, Mike Hammer, has been shuttling between Nairobi, South Africa, and Addis Ababa for the past three weeks.
Hammer, who is currently in Addis Ababa, has been catalyzing Obasanjo’s team to act faster than the time it has taken before. According to insiders, AU could have remained dormant if not for the EU and US pushes.
“Special Envoy Hammer has been supporting the African Union’s efforts to launch talks on the northern Ethiopian conflict, which we are urging to begin as soon as possible. We’ll let the AU speak to the details of this, but he’s been in constant touch with the parties, including those who are preparing to participate in the mediation effort, specifically Kenya, South Africa, as well as other key regional and international partners,” stated Ned Price, US State Department Spokesperson, during a brief on October 20, 2022.
But according to António Guterres, UN secretary general speaking to the media on October 17, 2022, the situation in Ethiopia is not close to ending, but rather “spiraling out of control”. He insisted the situation in Ethiopia is not only a domestic conflict but an international issue since Eritrea and Sudan are also drawn into the issue.
