As tensions escalate between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the people of Tigray once again face the threat of being drawn into a conflict that serves neither their interests nor their future. I write not as the chairman of a political party, but as a Tigrayan who bears the memory of profound loss—and as someone who believes in the necessity of strategic clarity.
What I propose is not passivity. It is what I call Calculated Neutrality—a policy grounded in survival, dignity, justice, and the long-term pursuit of independence through self-determination.
Let us speak plainly: Ethiopia and Eritrea jointly committed atrocities against the people of Tigray. The invasion of our region was marked by widespread civilian killings, sexual violence, starvation, and an apparent attempt to erase our identity. No political expediency or diplomatic engagement should obscure these truths. In the aftermath of such devastation, Tigray has neither a moral obligation nor a strategic interest in aligning with either of these regimes. The only prudent course is to remain outside their rivalry and prioritize our own interests—chief among them, our territorial integrity and sovereign agency.
And yet, at this critical juncture, the Tigray Interim Administration, led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), appears not only adrift but dangerously close to becoming complicit in the very dynamics that threaten our survival. Without a coherent long-term vision, it has begun to engage with one of the principal actors responsible for the war against our people: the Eritrean government. Such overtures risk exposing Tigray to another round of destruction.
This is not leadership. It is exploitation —an approach driven not by principle or strategy, but by the political calculus of narrow group interests and personal survival. Rather than shielding Tigray from external threats, this course of action provokes instability and pushes the region closer to yet another externally imposed catastrophe.
This is where Calculated Neutrality becomes not just relevant, but essential. In this context, neutrality is not hesitation—it is a principled, strategic posture. It is a refusal to allow Tigray to once again be used as a pawn in the hostile ambitions of those who have already inflicted immense suffering on its people. It is a call to look inward: to consolidate, to defend, and to rebuild.
Such an approach begins with the immediate disengagement from military alliances that undermine Tigray’s sovereignty or risk entangling it in unwanted regional conflicts; A focus on internal consolidation, including the rebuilding of institutions, the dignified reintegration of the displaced, and the securing of territorial integrity; diplomatic assertiveness—a clear and consistent message to regional and international actors that Tigray will not be used as a battleground, proxy, or bargaining chip.
We must also speak honestly about the failures of political leadership. The TPLF’s increasing reliance on short-term alliances—especially with former adversaries—signals a drift away from principled governance. When the survival of political elites is prioritized above the collective interests of the people, the future of the nation is put at risk.
Let me be clear: survival without strategy is surrender. Inaction is not neutrality. But Calculated Neutrality, embraced with discipline and vision, allows Tigray to reject external manipulation and lay the groundwork for sovereignty, peace, and justice—for today and for future generations.
To all Tigrayans—at home and in the diaspora—to every genuine political force, and to our international partners: the stakes could not be higher. We must resist being drawn back into others’ wars or manipulated by the very actors who once sought our erasure.
Tigray belongs to its people—not to foreign regimes, not to armed elites, and not to political actors clinging to relevance. Let that be our compass. Let that be our stand.
(Dejen Mezgebe (PhD) is an academic and political thinker based in Tigray. He currently serves as the chairman of the Tigray Independence Party. The views expressed in this article do not reflect the position of the party he leads.)
Contributed by Dejen Mezgebe (PhD)
