The precarious peace deal that has held South Sudan together since 2018 is on the brink of collapse, and observers warn the political violence that has gripped the world’s youngest country for the last three months could have serious ramifications for the already volatile Horn of Africa.
The UN Human Rights Commission in South Sudan called on the AU and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to intervene last week, warning that failure to return to dialogue could reignite the disastrous five-year civil war that left hundreds of thousands dead before it ended with a peace deal in 2018.
The war was fought between forces loyal to Vice President Riek Machar and his rival, President Salva Kiir, often along ethnic lines involving the Dinka and Nuer ethnic groups.
The two men have headed a united government over the past seven years.
However, growing tensions between the factions reached a boiling point when Machar was detained by government forces last month on allegations that he was working to stir up a new rebellion.
His detention follows weeks of fighting in the country’s Upper Nile State between the military and the White Army militia, who were allied with Machar’s forces during the civil war.
International Crisis Group observations also note that an “independent Nuer militia, intermittently aligned with Machar’s SPLM-IO”, overran an army base in Nasir in March, prompting government responses. However, the militia denies any current links to the Vice President.
Reports of Ugandan military involvement in the intensifying conflict have only added to the worries.
“South Sudan’s peace agreement is in crisis,” said Sooka. “The renewed violence is pushing the Revitalized Peace Agreement to the brink of irrelevance., threatening a total collapse.”
UN Commissioner Barney Afako warned that undermining the peace process is “an act of profound folly and recklessness” that will “reignite violence, deepen insecurity, and impose further grave violations on long suffering citizens.”
The UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) says the potential fragmentation of South Sudan could further destabilize an “already volatile region”.
The effects of the violence are already being felt in Ethiopia’s Gambella Regional State, which is struggling to accommodate a large influx of South Sudanese refugees.
Simon Tut, a prominent political figure and chair of an opposition party based in the region, says the situation is dire and stresses that it is time to act before things get out of control, asserting that diplomatic measures remain the only viable solution.
“It is the right time for IGAD and the international community to intervene before the situation escalates and destabilizes the Horn. They must bring the two factions to a common agreement through peaceful negotiations. The first step should be the release of prisoners, including First Vice President Riek Machar,” he told The Reporter.
