Critics warn move to fortify regional security forces could lead back to tensions
Allusions to significant improvements in national peace and security in a recent report from the National Security Council have raised eyebrows among analysts and opposition political figures who find the assertion tough to swallow in light of ongoing conflict in Amhara and Oromia, as well as tensions in Tigray and elsewhere.
The Council—a body of senior police, military, and intelligence officers under the leadership of the Prime Minister—released its assessment of Ethiopia’s national, regional, and global security positions this week, accompanied by an overview of its plans for the near future.
The report, which comes less than a month following Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s latest address to Parliament, claims the nation’s peace and security status has shown a significant improvement and that regional security structures have been fortified.
The assertions have been met with skepticism from politicians and analysts who expressed their doubts to The Reporter.
Among them is Mulatu Gemechu, vice chairman of the prominent Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) opposition party.
“Unless there are matters I cannot see due to my lack of privilege within the government, I do not comprehend why they chose to report an improvement on this frontier,” he told The Reporter.
Mulatu pointed to a recent incident involving the roadside abduction of 56 people whose bus was attacked by a group of armed men in North Shewa as an example of the country’s ongoing struggles with violence and security.
“The nationwide security situation is what we are witnessing every day. Movement is becoming increasingly difficult in many parts of the country, and there are high tensions all around as well,” he said.
He criticized the Council for failing to present a plausible report, and argued that a solution to the problems requires the inclusion of all stakeholders.
On the other hand, a political analyst who spoke to The Reporter anonymously contends the Council’s assessment could be based on real strides made in peace building.
“Yes, we keep our tabs on current affairs, but the information we get on hand is as limited as the data the media is accessing or what government organizations are disseminating through their own channels. In its announcement the Council did not over-exaggerate and the figures are in its hands; some improvement is possible,” said the analyst.
He referred to the ceasefire in Tigray and a peace agreement signed with a faction of the Oromo Liberation Army led by Sagni Nagassa four months ago as possible examples of progress.
“No one denies the presence of conflict in parts of the country but these two factors might be where the progress they are referring to comes from,” he noted.
Last month saw yet another round of heavy fighting between government security forces and Fano armed militias in the Amhara Regional State.
The Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) recently announced it conducted an offensive against Fano in several parts of the region, including South Gondar, West Gondar, North Gojjam, East Gojjam, West Gojjam and North Wollo, reportedly neutralizing 576 members of the armed group and seizing several weapons.
The statement has yet to be confirmed by independent sources.
Last week, the Security Council admitted that “challenges remain” but strongly asserted that government efforts “to enforce the law and encourage ways of peace” in the Amhara and Oromia regions have resulted in the voluntary disarmament of militants who chose peace.
Addressing Tigray, the Council stated the government’s “tireless efforts” to resolve tensions and secure peace in the region have come up against “the evil intentions of certain actors.
This week saw Lieutenant General Tadesse Worede, head of the Tigray Defense Forces, succeed Getachew Reda as president of the region’s interim administration.
Alongside the claims of improvements in national peace, the Council has asserted that regional security structures have been fortified.
Observers warn that increasingly empowering regional security forces could pave a road back to the impasse of April 2023, when regional administrations and the federal government were at loggerheads over a proposed restructuring of regional ‘special forces’.
While the federal government’s move to dismantle the special armed forces that were under the command of regional administrations eventually succeeded, it also sparked tensions between Amhara regional forces and the military, subsequently birthing the Fano and the region’s ongoing conflict.
A political analyst, who spoke anonymously, argues the fortifications announced by the Council are unlikely to result in the kind of tensions observed in 2023.
“First, the government should clarify in what contexts these structures are steadily getting built up. But assuming scenarios based on current affairs, the move to embolden regional forces might be warranted as a result of concerns pertaining to national security risks, the need to create more favorable investment conditions, and economic opportunities,” he noted.
The analyst believes the federal government’s centralization of power nullifies risks posed by strengthened regional security forces.
“The nature of this administration is to consolidate more power towards the centre rather than to guarantee a more decentralized federalist power structure. I do not believe strengthening the forces would take the country back to what was,” he noted.
Mulatu agrees.
He observes that regional administrations are progressively handing over power to the federal government rather than pushing to expand the limits of their autonomy.
Still, politicians and experts who spoke to The Reporter all seem to agree the Council’s assertions of improvements in economic activity and the movement of goods and people should be taken with a grain of salt.
One analyst argued that while regional administrations’ political and economic engagement with the federal government has shown a huge improvement, their ties with one another are growing more frayed by the day.
“Communication and economic engagement between regional states appears as though it is between separate countries. It is very difficult to travel from one state to another; reports of abductions are heard every other week, to the point where the public actually prefers air transportation. The administrations are aware of the challenges but the required effort to ease the movement of goods and people is lacking,” said the analyst.
Mulatu points out that conflict and tensions provide cover for a booming illicit trade in commodities such as gold and sesame, which reports indicate are being smuggled out of the country in large volumes.
Another analyst argues the Council’s claims about economic advances should be examined in light of what the government has planned and managed to achieve, as well as in consideration of the economic conditions it inherited from its predecessor.
“Among other things, the government has promised to open up the market, to lay down the regulatory framework for the entry of foreign banks, float the currency and to open up a capital market. While the question of whether these things have benefited the general public or not is another subject of discussion, the realization of all these elements on the ground indicates that it is performing as per its plan,” he said.
Still, the analyst concedes a comparison to past economic policies and performances indicates the administration is underachieving.
“Industries were expanding. There was the construction of hydroelectric power stations, infrastructure, hospitals, sugar factories, plans for a fertilizer factory and some other operations. In this regard we cannot assess that it is doing well. All those efforts of the last economy were overturned after the 2018 political upheaval,” he noted.
The Council also included an overview of Ethiopia’s regional, continental, and global security interests in its report.
It noted that volatility in the Horn of Africa and political and economic shifts in the broader global context, including trade route crises, terrorist movements, cyber attacks, and disintegrating global alliances, call for closer attention.
Abiy’s Council praised “the wise leadership” enabling the country to protect its political independence and national interests while playing an appropriate role in current affairs.
“Protecting Ethiopia’s national interest in the global arena is an appropriate move. Particularly, initiatives set in motion based on diplomatic, legal and peaceful means to secure the nation’s access to the sea have now been geared towards a direction that will allow it to continue with the enthusiasm it started with,” reads the report.
Analysts observe that any relationship with other countries, neighboring or otherwise, is tied to economic gains and warn that Ethiopia’s diplomatic engagements and policies have become increasingly unpredictable.
“Our diplomatic engagements with Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia and Somaliland depict the presence of quick and unpredictable changes. To establish deep-rooted and long-lasting relations based on mutual economical benefit, we need to forge a principled and permanent policy of diplomatic commitment that can be identified as Ethiopian whenever it materializes,” stated an analyst.
