But was this a win for Africa? Or did it leave African nations navigating the choppy waters of an ever-changing US foreign policy? As Trump begins his second term (yes, we’re here again), it’s worth revisiting his first-term Africa playbook: pragmatic, transactional, and occasionally as unpredictable as a tweetstorm at 3 a.m.

Bilateral deals over multilateral engagement: The art of the deal, African edition

One of the hallmarks of Trump’s Africa policy was his preference for bilateral agreements over multilateral engagements. Forget the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)—Trump was all about one-on-one deals. This was part of his broader mission to rewrite the rules of international trade, with a simple question: “What’s in it for us?”

Rather than renewing AGOA, Trump’s administration explored bilateral agreements that allowed for more tailored—and sometimes more favorable—deals. For larger African nations with economic clout, this was a potential win. But for smaller countries? Let’s just say they might have felt like they were bringing a knife to a gunfight.

Enter the Prosper Africa Initiative, launched in 2018. This was Trump’s attempt to reframe US-Africa relations, focusing on boosting US business investments rather than aid. The goal? Help American businesses tap into Africa’s fast-growing markets while helping African countries industrialize. Sounds great on paper, right? But critics argued it didn’t quite live up to the hype, especially when compared to China’s rapidly expanding footprint.

A focus on security, not democracy: Allies, not ideals

While economic engagement was important, security was Trump’s top priority in Africa. His foreign policy, often transactional to the core, was heavily shaped by US interests—particularly in the fight against terrorism. The US military ramped up operations in places like the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, targeting groups like Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab.

But here’s the twist: under Trump, human rights, democracy, and good governance took a backseat. The “America First” strategy meant less pressure on African governments to improve political freedoms—especially if those governments were willing to help with counterterrorism. Authoritarian regimes got a pass as long as they played ball with Washington.

For civil society, this shift was glaring. But for African leaders willing to cooperate on security, it was a pragmatic win. After all, who needs democracy when you’ve got drones?

China: The elephant in the room (and everywhere else)

If there’s one thing Trump loves more than a good deal, it’s a good rivalry. And China was the ultimate rival in his Africa policy. Beijing’s “Belt and Road” initiative, which funded massive infrastructure projects across Africa, was seen as a direct challenge to American influence.

Trump’s response? Counter Chinese influence by offering an alternative—US business interests. The Prosper Africa Initiative was part of this strategy, aiming to woo African nations away from China’s so-called “predatory” investments. But let’s be real: while the US successfully highlighted the risks of Chinese debt-trap diplomacy, it didn’t quite match China’s infrastructure commitments.

This competition also played out in the military arena. US Africa Command (AFRICOM) became a key player, deploying forces to countries like Niger and Somalia. The message was clear: the US wasn’t just there to talk business—it was there to flex some muscle too.

Foreign aid: Less charity, more leverage

True to his “America First” ethos, Trump proposed drastic cuts to US foreign aid, including to Africa. While Congress often pushed back, the administration’s approach to aid was less about humanitarian assistance and more about leveraging it for political and strategic gain.

The creation of the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) in 2019 was a major move. Designed to encourage US private-sector investment in developing countries, the DFC offered a new way to engage with African nations—not as aid recipients, but as business partners. This aligned with Trump’s goal of reducing the US role as a donor nation and pushing African countries to engage more with the private sector.

But again, the focus on competition—especially with China—often overshadowed developmental and humanitarian goals. Africa, rich in resources and strategically important, became a key battleground in the global competition for influence.

Looking ahead: What’s next for US-Africa relations?

As Trump settles into his second term, the big question is: will his Africa policy evolve or stay the course? If his first term is any indication, we can expect more of the same: a pragmatic, security-focused, business-centric approach, with a heavy emphasis on countering China’s influence.

But Africa’s geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex. Shifting allegiances, regional security challenges, and the growing influence of Russia could force the Trump administration to adapt its strategies.

Here’s the thing: Africa deserves more than just being a pawn in a great power game. It deserves to be a partner in shaping its own future. As the Trump administration looks ahead, it must recognize that Africa’s potential can only be realized through a balanced, mutually beneficial approach—one that goes beyond security and business interests and embraces the continent’s vast human and economic potential.

In the end, Africa isn’t just a playing field for global powers—it’s a continent with its own voice, ambitions, and dreams. And if there’s one thing Trump loves, it’s a winner. Maybe it’s time to bet on Africa.

Bruh Yihunbelay is the station manager of Tirita 97.6 FM. He can be reached at bruh.yihunbelay@gmail.com.

For the Ethiopian Securities Exchange to achieve its long-term objectives, financial media must be recognized as an integral part of the market ecosystem, serving to educate, inform, and promote transparency.

The launch of the Ethiopian Securities Exchange marks a significant milestone in the country’s financial history. However, for this institution to thrive, a well-informed public is essential. Financial media plays a pivotal role in simplifying complex financial concepts such as equities, Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), bonds, and market volatility.

In a country where financial literacy is still developing, media outlets are crucial in providing accessible, easy-to-understand information about market operations. Investors, businesses, and the general public need clear explanations of how the securities exchange functions, how to participate, and how to evaluate risks and opportunities. Without this educational foundation, the market risks alienating potential participants.

Transparency and investor confidence are the cornerstones of any securities market. Now that the Ethiopian Securities Exchange is operational, real-time reporting on market activities, corporate performance, and regulatory changes will be critical. Financial media must provide consistent updates on stock prices, corporate earnings, and economic trends to ensure market participants can make informed decisions.

The experience of established markets like the United States highlights the importance of robust financial reporting. Outlets such as The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg have demonstrated how consistent and reliable media coverage can shape investor perceptions and foster trust. Similarly, Ethiopian financial media must strive to provide dependable coverage, which will be crucial in attracting both local and international investors to this nascent market.

Financial media also serves as a watchdog, ensuring accountability and promoting ethical business practices. In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, investigative journalism played a key role in exposing corporate misconduct, spurring regulatory reforms, and restoring trust in the system.

In Ethiopia, media outlets must adopt a similar role, reporting on earnings, stock price fluctuations, and governance issues while investigating potential cases of insider trading or market manipulation. By doing so, they will help ensure that the securities exchange operates transparently, creating an environment of trust and fairness.

In Ethiopia, where financial literacy is still a work in progress, financial media can help bridge the knowledge gap. Through articles, podcasts, radio shows, and TV programs, media outlets can demystify stock market operations, making them accessible to the broader population.

For instance, in India, platforms such as Economic Times and Money control offer content that caters to both novice and experienced investors. Ethiopian media outlets can emulate this approach, providing a mix of beginner-friendly content and detailed market analysis to foster greater market participation.

Finally, financial media can play a vital role in shaping market regulations and policies. As the Ethiopian Securities Exchange evolves, ongoing dialogue between policymakers, regulators, and the public will be essential. Financial media can facilitate this dialogue by hosting forums, publishing expert analyses, and fostering public debates on regulatory frameworks and market challenges.

In South Africa, for example, financial media outlets regularly engage stakeholders in discussions about market regulations and their impacts. Ethiopian financial media should adopt a similar approach, ensuring that the regulatory environment remains inclusive, transparent, and responsive to market needs.

The launch of Ethiopia’s Securities Exchange is a historic achievement, but its long-term success depends on integrating financial media into its operational and strategic framework. Media outlets are not merely observers; they are active participants in fostering education, transparency, and accountability.

To build a stable, transparent, and successful marketplace, financial media must play a proactive role in informing and engaging the public, holding companies accountable, and supporting regulatory development. With the exchange now operational, Ethiopia has a unique opportunity to develop a robust financial media landscape that supports its securities market and contributes to the nation’s economic growth.

 Bruh Yihunbelay is the station manager of Tirita 97.6 FM and host of the Mercato Be Tirita radio show. He can be reached at bruh.yihunbelay@gmail.com.

Ethiopia stands at a critical juncture in its media evolution. The proposed amendments to the mass media law, ostensibly aimed at addressing gaps in governance and bolstering national security, have alarmed media professionals, civil society organizations, and press freedom advocates alike. At stake is the delicate balance between regulatory oversight and the fundamental right to freedom of expression. Institutional independence and the empowerment of professional associations are indispensable pillars of this balance.

One of the most pressing concerns is the erosion of independence within the Ethiopian Media Authority (EMA). The draft legislation grants the prime minister unilateral authority to appoint key officials and allows politically affiliated individuals to serve on the Authority’s board. This centralization of decision-making jeopardizes the EMA’s neutrality, undermining its ability to act as an impartial regulator.

The existing media law, enacted in 2021, provided safeguards to protect against political interference, including public participation in board nominations. These measures were instrumental in creating a more equitable and autonomous media environment. Dismantling these provisions would undo the progress Ethiopia has made toward a freer and more democratic society.

To preserve the EMA’s independence, the draft legislation must restore these safeguards and ensure a transparent, inclusive appointment process for its board. Such steps are not merely symbolic—they are essential to upholding press freedom and fostering public trust in the country’s media institutions.

Beyond the EMA, Ethiopia’s independent professional associations, such as the Ethiopian Media Council, play a crucial role in maintaining journalistic standards and ensuring accountability. Comprised of media practitioners and stakeholders, these bodies serve as independent watchdogs, arbiters, and advocates for ethical journalism.

Strengthening these associations could create a robust system of checks and balances. For instance, the Ethiopian Media Council could establish ethical guidelines, mediate disputes, and offer capacity-building programs for journalists. Moreover, these organizations can act as strategic allies in the fight against misinformation, promoting responsible reporting in an increasingly polarized media environment.

Incorporating provisions to empower professional associations in the draft law would not only reinforce press freedom but also enhance the credibility and resilience of Ethiopia’s media landscape.

In an era dominated by digital platforms, the rise of misinformation further complicates the country’s media challenges. Political and ethnic divisions have amplified the spread of falsehoods, often fueled by both state-controlled outlets and independent influencers, such as YouTubers, with biased or sensationalized content.

The proposed media law must tackle the issue of misinformation through constructive and non-punitive approaches. Initiatives such as fact-checking programs, digital literacy campaigns, and collaborations with civil society organizations can play a pivotal role in countering false narratives and fostering responsible consumption of information. The government should also work closely with independent media associations to develop ethical reporting guidelines tailored to the digital age.

However, efforts to address misinformation must not be weaponized as a tool to silence legitimate criticism or stifle dissenting voices. Striking the delicate balance between promoting accountability and protecting freedom of expression is crucial to maintaining a democratic and open society.

A particularly contentious aspect of the draft media law is the opacity surrounding its formulation and the limited opportunities for public input. While the government has held consultations with some stakeholders, these efforts have been widely criticized as superficial and insufficient. Many participants in recent hearings have voiced serious concerns about the draft law’s implications for press freedom and called for more robust and inclusive discussions to address these shortcomings.

To build consensus and legitimacy, the government must commit to a transparent and participatory legislative process. This means not only seeking input from media professionals, civil society organizations, and other stakeholders but also ensuring their feedback is meaningfully incorporated into the final draft. Public consultations should be open, well-publicized, and conducted with genuine intent, creating an environment where diverse perspectives are heard and respected.

Several steps are necessary to address these challenges and promote a thriving, independent media environment in Ethiopia.

First, the Media Authority’s independence must be preserved by reinstating safeguards against political interference and partisan appointments. A neutral and autonomous regulatory body is essential for fostering a fair and balanced media landscape. Second, professional associations like the Ethiopian Media Council must be empowered to take on greater responsibilities. These organizations can play a critical role in maintaining journalistic standards, mediating disputes, and promoting ethical reporting practices.

Third, misinformation must be addressed constructively through education and collaboration rather than punitive measures that risk suppressing legitimate journalism. Fact-based reporting, supported by initiatives such as digital literacy campaigns and partnerships with civil society, can help combat misinformation without infringing on press freedom. Fourth, the government must prioritize transparency and inclusivity in the legislative process. Comprehensive public consultations that reflect a broad spectrum of voices are crucial for building trust and ensuring the final law aligns with democratic values.

Finally, fostering media pluralism is essential. Supporting the growth of independent media outlets and ensuring mechanisms are in place to protect journalists from harassment and intimidation will enable a free and fearless press to flourish.

Ethiopia’s media sector has the potential to become a transformative force for democracy, development, and social cohesion. Yet, this potential can only be realized if press freedom is safeguarded and independent institutions are allowed to thrive. While the proposed amendments to the media law may stem from a desire to address pressing challenges, they must not come at the expense of the foundational principles that underpin a free and open society.

By upholding institutional independence, empowering professional associations, addressing misinformation constructively, and fostering transparency, Ethiopia can establish a media environment that balances freedom with accountability. Such a framework will not only strengthen the media’s role as a watchdog and public informer but also contribute significantly to the broader goals of national development and democratic governance.

(Bruh Yihunbelay is currently the station manager of Tirita 97.6 FM.)

Abiyot was a popular name in the mid- and late 1970s following the popular revolution that led to the end of a monarchy which lasted for millennia.

True to his initial name Abiyot, Abiy Ahmed, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, is a revolutionary of his generation.

The sweeping changes that Abiy brought about after taking power, which include the release of political prisoners and journalists from jail and mending fences with neighboring Eritrea, bestowed upon him accolades including the most prestigious and highly coveted Nobel Peace Prize.

According to commentators and observers alike, Abiy’s diplomatic acumen is unparalleled. He has managed to win the hearts of both the West, the East and Ethiopia’s close neighbors, the Arabs.

His predecessors, Emperor Haile-Selassie, Mengistu Hailemariam, Meles Zenawi and Hailemariam Dessalegn, all had their triumphs and tribulations on the diplomatic front.

With Haile-Selassie playing a fundamental role in establishing a continental union, and Meles becoming the voice of Africa in global climate change negotiations, Ethiopian leaders, by and large, have had a significant impact on the continent.

And now is the time for Abiy Ahmed to follow in the footsteps of his predecessors in his dealings with Africa. After taking office, the Prime Minister’s sphere of influence expanded starting with Eritrea and then moving to Ethiopia’s western neighbor Sudan, where Abiy positioned himself in the role of a peacemaker.

According to media reports at the time, Abiy met with representatives of the Forces for the Declaration of Freedom and Change of Sudan – an umbrella coalition of protest groups and political parties that were continuing their campaign of protests despite the removal of Sudan long-time leader Omar al-Bashir. Abiy stressed the importance of unity as a precursor to peace in his meeting with the opposition group.

Abiy had already built a working relationship with the Head of the Sudanese Transitional Military Council General Abdul Fattah Burhan, who visited Ethiopia at the end of May last year.

During that meeting, Abiy pledged non-interference in Sudanese affairs.

In due course, Sudan’s post al-Bashir transition started to take shape months after the former leader was ousted by the military and on August 18, 2019 was the signing of a transition deal between the military junta and leaders of the protest movement, the Forces for Freedom and Change.

At that time, reports revealed that Abiy’s presence clearly stood out as his name was always greeted with cheers by people in the hall. He delivered a statement at the event urging Sudanese people to guard their peace.

It would not be an overstatement to say that Abiy is a charismatic and towering figure in the Horn and East Africa and his latest trip was to the other side of the continent, the Republic of Guinea in West Africa; Equatorial Guinea in Central Africa; and then to South Africa.

Guinea Conakry was his first stop where he undertook a two-day official visit. The PM’s office said Abiy held meetings with President Alpha Conde and visited the Port of Conakry.

The two agreed to bolster cooperation agreements signed in 2019 between the two countries. The agreements focused on areas of education, health, financial management, agriculture, culture and tourism.

“It is to be recalled that President of the Republic of Guinea, Alpha Condé, made an official state visit to Ethiopia last year. Cooperation agreements were signed in 2019 between the two countries, in the areas of education, health, financial management, agriculture and culture and tourism.  As part of strengthening bilateral ties, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed (PhD) arrived in the Republic of Guinea for an official state visit. And agreements were made with President Alpha Condé to activate the partnership in the areas of agriculture, tourism, mining and energy. The visit will contribute to strengthening relations between the two countries,” Getachew Mekonnen, a Researcher at the Institute of Strategic Affairs, told The Reporter via email.

During the stay in the Republic of Guinea, PM Abiy Ahmed also met with Governor El Rufai of Kaduna State, Nigeria and Nigerian business tycoon, Tony Olumelu, to discuss investment opportunities in Ethiopia in various burgeoning sectors.

His second stop was in Malabo. Abiy was received by his host President Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, with the two parties signing cooperation deals aimed at boosting existing bilateral relations.

Ethiopians in the oil-rich Central African country lined up along major roads to welcome the Prime Minister. A number of them wearing attires that showed Abiy’s Nobel Peace Prize triumph.

The talks between Abiy and Nguema Mbasogo included expanding pragmatic cooperation in aviation and other economic sectors.

After his engagements in Malabo, Abiy headed to South Africa for a two-day official state visit. The visit aimed at strengthening the diplomatic relations between the two countries and boost ties. During his stay in South Africa, Abiy met with South African officials and Ethiopians residing in the Rainbow Nation there.

“Informed by historical ties dating back to South Africa’s liberation struggle, South Africa and Ethiopia established official diplomatic relations in 1994, as the basis for present-day political and economic cooperation.

The visit explored potential areas of trade and investment for the benefit of both countries in industries such as telecommunications, road infrastructure, mining, agro-processing and manufacturing,” Getachew said.

According to the researcher, Ethiopia’s readiness in supporting South African Airways with the spirit of Pan-Africanism to come back to its past glory is one major area of cooperation.

“The bilateral discussions were on matters of mutual national issues (the two countries’ strategic cooperation), regional and continental issues (to advance the African Union’s visionary and developmental Agenda 2063) as well as international issues (campaigning for the reform of the multilateral institutions),” Getachew said. Abiy also called on South African President Cyril Ramaphosa to intervene in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) negotiations as the next chairperson of the African Union (AU), which he will take over from Egypt this month.

“As he (Ramaphosa) is a good friend for both Ethiopia and Egypt and also as incoming AU chair, he can make a discussion between both parties to solve the issue peacefully,” Abiy told reporters at a news conference in South Africa’s political capital Pretoria.

Ramaphosa said South Africa was open to playing a role in facilitating “whatever agreement can be crafted”.

“What is pleasing, as far as I’m concerned, is that both countries are willing to discuss this matter and find solutions,” he said.

According to political analysts, in due course, the geopolitical dynamics and its effects, which extends all the way to the Horn of Africa, could have dire implications as tensions continue to rise.

It all started after Soleimani, a 62-year-old general, who was regarded as the second most powerful figure in Iran after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a targeted US drone strike on January 3, 2020 in Baghdad, Iraq.

The overnight attack, authorized by President Donald Trump, marked a dramatic escalation in a “shadow war” in the Middle East between Iran and the United States and its allies, principally Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Top Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, an adviser to Soleimani, was also killed in the attack.

Soleimani, also known as “The Shadow Commander” was widely popular among Iranians. His supporters viewed him as a “selfless hero fighting Iran’s enemies.” On the other side of the globe, Soleimani was personally sanctioned by the United Nations and the European Union, and was designated as a terrorist by the United States.

According to analysts, his death marks a significant political and strategic setback for the Islamic Republic which in turn alters the geopolitical dynamics of the gulf region and the Horn of Africa.

The Gulf and the Horn

“Centuries of shared faith and commerce have placed the Gulf and the Horn among the world’s most interdependent regions. Gulf powers view the region bordering Africa’s Red Sea and Gulf of Aden as their natural sphere of influence,” Rashid Abdi Former Project Director for the Horn of Africa at the International Crisis Group (ICG), wrote in an article published by the ICG in 2017.

He further says that today’s scramble for influence is driven by both geo-economic and geo-security imperatives: securing a post-oil future and prepositioning for a potential future conflict with Iran.

According to Asteris Huliaras and Sophia Kalantzakos, in their article published in the journal of the Middle East Policy Council, within the last few years, Gulf States have been considered by many observers as “rising” powers in the Horn of Africa. This has been especially pronounced with respect to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The formation of new military alliances and the strengthening of economic ties have been offered as “proof” of their expanding influence.

The Red Sea strait of Bab el Mandeb, located between Yemen and the Horn of African countries of Djibouti and Eritrea is one of the areas that might be on the receiving end of rising escalations between United States and Iran.

For instance, in Yemen, the United States has been backing its ally Saudi Arabia against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

Strategic alliances and influences

The withdrawal of superpowers from the Horn of Africa after the end of the Cold War gave more freedom of maneuver to the countries of the region. In that regard, much of the Gulf’s interest in the Horn is related to competition with Iran.

“The election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005 led to increased Iranian activity in the Horn of Africa that included an alliance with Eritrea, various agreements with Djibouti, and the further strengthening of relations with Sudan. By the early 2010s, as Iran increased its influence in Iraq and Syria, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were forced to re-examine their foreign and security policies. Their disquiet over Iranian hegemonic ambitions was further heightened in July 2015 with the nuclear agreement between Iran and the West. Saudi and UAE leaders decided to increase military and political coordination and developed a strategy to counter what they perceived as Iranian “expansionism” in the wider region,” Huliaras and Kalantzakos wrote.

True to form, Gulf States see strategic risks in leaving the Horn to potential adversaries. The presence of the Iranian-backed Houthis at the vital Bab El Mandeb choke-point at the southern end of the Red Sea provided another significant incentive for both Saudi Arabia and the UAE to establish their presence on both sides of the strait to maintain maritime security. 

Another manifestation of the influence of Gulf States and their growing diplomatic heft, was the central role the UAE and Saudi Arabia played in brokering the historic peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea in July 2018. Adding to its already strong ties to Eritrea, Emirati diplomats also gradually developed closer relations with Ethiopia – largely through deployment of much-needed investment and financial opportunities.

The risks and how to bypass them

The recent tensions is seen by analysts as a scenario that could turn for the worst.

“The US considered the killing as a deterrent to further Iranian attacks but fired back. Iran has responded to the Soleimani killing directly and no one will stop her from supporting proxy wars elsewhere in the Middle East and the Red Sea region,” Leulseged Girma, a researcher on geopolitics at the Institute for Strategic Affairs, told The Reporter.

Leulseged further said that the truce in Yemen between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia is now at risk and Palestinians have expressed their anger over the death of Soleimani. According to him, this shows that organizations such as Hamas can be involved against the Sunni Arab States in the region. Other Shiite forces such as Hezbollah will appear fiercely in the fight against the Sunnis in the region, he added.

Iran has already threatened to pound Saudi Arabia and Israel if the US responds to the Iranian attack of military bases in Iraq.

“The clash will continue if President Donald Trump orders retaliation as he has iterated last week. Trump is ready to retaliate disproportionately if Iran targets any of the US persons or military facilities. Trump had already threatened to strike 52 Iranian sites. If he persists with his idea of attacking Iran, Iran will also attack other states in the Middle East and its Shiite backers will also launch attacks against the US allies and interests,” Leulseged said.

And the thing that complicates things even further is that the altercation includes the Red Sea strait where most of the world’s goods are being transported.

“Standing against Iran, some countries of the Horn of Africa had also participated in the Yemen civil war against the Houthi rebels. Any kind of escalation of war in Yemen will hurt the import-export of the HoA countries including Ethiopia,” Leulseged said.

This may re-drag the countries into the war and it may have a devastating effect; however, as a guiding principle, Ethiopia, the most populous country in the Horn of Africa, remains to be neutral when it comes to dealing with countries in the Middle East.

“Ethiopia has remained neutral and non-partisan. The country, as usual, may call upon all conflicting parties to employ political dialogue to end the impasse,” Leulseged said.

“Ethiopia is one of the best countries. The population is huge, you have very good climate, a climate that we call tropical monsoon, and you have abundant water. Nigeria is also more or less the same. There is possibility to make investment in agriculture in the future,” Alessandro Malavolti, President of FederUnacoma told The Reporter on the sidelines of Agrilevante 2019.

With the proper amount of subsidy from the Ethiopian government and the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), which aims at the development of agriculture in Ethiopia, Malavolti said that there is a huge possibility for investment.

 “The level of mechanization in both countries is pretty low, so, by putting in the right amount of subsidy and policy, the possibility for investment is huge,” Malavolti said.

The international exhibition of machinery and technologies for agricultural supply chains, Agrilevante 2019, took place this week at the Bari exhibition centre from October 10 to 13. Organized by FederUnacoma, the exhibition presented a wide range of technological solutions and is aimed at an audience of farmers, mechanization technicians and foreign operators attending with delegations from 45 countries organized in collaboration with the Italian Trade Agency (ICE Agency).

In addition to the machinery, there was an exhibition of about 500 heads of livestock – including cattle, horses, sheep and goats – of select breeds.

The sixth biennial edition of Agrilevante registered a record number of visitors – close to 71,000. Participants came from different Italian regions from southern Europe, the Balkans, the Middle East, North and Sub-Saharan Africa. According to the organizers, a qualified component was represented by foreign economic operators, coming from 45 countries, organized by FederUnacoma in collaboration with the ICE Agency, with a program that includes business-to-business meetings with companies that offer specific technologies that foreign operators have an interest in for their markets.

From Ethiopia, MOENCO Ethiopia, Kegna Agricultural Equipment, G.E.M. Engineering and Gasco Trading PLC took part in the business-to-business meetings.

The Italian Agricultural Machinery Manufacturers Federation, formed in 2012 to replace Unacoma (the Italian Farm Machinery Manufacturers Association set up in 1945), brings together, and represents in Italy and abroad, the associations of Italian manufacturers of implements, self-propelled machines, tractors, components and gardening machinery.

FederUnacoma’s associates account for 80 percent of Italian production, with exports accounting for 60 percent of this production.

From various types of industrial accessories to mechatronics and the latest model SUV and Sedan Alfa Romeos to 3D printers, the exhibition has it all; and for some a robot that solves a Rubik’s Cube (3-D combination puzzle widely considered to be the world’s best-selling toy) in less than five minutes was the icing on the top. Some of the booths that displayed advanced robotics technologies might even seem like a scene from the Hollywood blockbuster Transformers.

Organized by EFIM-ENTE FIERE ITALIANE MACCHINE, the trade show is promoted by UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PROCURRE, the association representing the sector of machine tools, robots, automation and auxiliary technologies. As stated by the organizers, the contribution of the aforementioned sectors to the Italian GDP is over nine billion euros.

According to an article published on maschinenmarkt.international, an industrial magazine for the manufacturing industry, 2018 is expected to be positive for the machine tool sector. Some of the leading countries in this sector such as Germany, China, Japan and Italy have made significant developments in the field.

The global machine tools market is predicted to exceed USD 120 billion by 2020, according to a report by Technavio. The sector looks to be positive with many countries across the globe witnessing substantial as well as high growth. In terms of production output, China tops the chart followed by Germany, Japan and Italy, while in the export scenario, Germany holds the first rank ahead of Japan and Italy.

“Ranking fourth among manufacturers and third among exporting countries, the Italian industry plays a leading role in the international scenario. In fifth place in the world consumption ranking, over the last years, Italy has stood out thanks to its lively domestic demand, whose growth rate has been among the highest ones,” Massimo Carboniero, president of UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PROCURRE, said at a press conference that was held on the sidelines of this year’s exhibition.

Metal cutting and metal forming machine tools, robots, automation, digital manufacturing, fluid-power systems, mechatronics, surface finish treatments, tools, components, equipment and accessories, metrology, welding, Internet of Things (IoT), big data analytics, cyber security, cloud computing, augmented reality, system integrators, vision systems and various software were on display.

Bringing together 1,056 enterprises from 27 countries, including Austria, China, France, Germany, Great Britain, India, Israel, Japan, Poland, South Korea, host country Italy and the US among others, the machines that were exhibited from the aforementioned countries, according to the organizers, are about 4,ooo for a value of some 500 million euros.

Over 250 potential buyers coming from 22 countries, including Algeria, Ethiopia, Iran, Morocco, Mexico, Thailand, Tunisia and Turkey, were at the exhibition grounds.

At this flagship trade fair and exhibition, business meetings took place at the stands. In addition, members of the Ethiopian business delegation comprising those from construction and manufacturing industries held business-to-business (B2B) meetings at the Fieramilano Rho.

Be that as it may, it was observed that with only three countries from North Africa [Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia] and one from the Horn of Africa [Ethiopia] there were no other African countries taking part in the exhibition.

True to form, many large Italian companies and a significant amount of Italian products have little or no presence in Africa especially when compared to the likes of Chinese, Indian and Turkish products. Nonetheless, for commentators, that is something that should change.

Fasil Amdetsion, an Ethiopian lawyer with expertise in international law and international affairs, in a 2016 article wrote: “Closer Italy-Africa relations can pave the way for mutually advantageous business deal-making and investments. Engagement on the economic front can proceed along a dual track: On the one hand, involving large Italian corporations, and on the other, small and medium-scale Italian enterprises. If done right, African partners can be involved in both cases.”

According to Fasil, African governments–and at times businesses–frequently rely on what they believe are tried and true methods of attracting investment, like participation in trade fairs or mingling with trade missions. Such efforts may yield some results, but a more “activist” approach is warranted.

“Governments ought to identify companies whose investments would be synergistic with their country’s development needs, engage in individualized lobbying to attract such investment and lay out specific incentives,” Fasil states.

In that regard, for one commentator who participated at the trade fair, the collaborative effort of EFIM-ENTE FIERE ITALIANE MACCHINE, UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PROCURRE, ICE-Italian Trade Agency, is a commendable one but still has a long way to go.

“Efforts ought to be made not just in regards to this particular trade fair but in the whole Italy-Africa business and investment relations,” the commentator states.

Responding to questions from The Reporter regarding the near non-existence of African countries at the trade fair Massimo Carboniero, president of UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PROCURRE, said: “Africa potentially is an important market for the future. Right now, volume is low so we should organize more communications platforms with different African countries.”  

Carboniero said that in recent years he had met with businesses and governments from sub-Saharan Africa and discussed pertinent issues.

“There is desire for cooperation. So, I believe that there should be financial support that would enable us to create opportunities and train African youth”. According to data compiled by UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PROCURRE, export to Africa in 2017 grew by 7 percent.

“We want to strengthen contact. We are trying to to analyze the development aspect with the assistance of experts,” he said.

“Our approach towards sub-Saharan Africa is focusing on growth and training, since we are interested in important markets like Ethiopia and Nigeria,” he said.

The Reporter: Diageo is one of the major multinational companies operating in Ethiopia. Would you walk us through your operations here and the overall business environment with specific focus on the beer sector?

Baker Magunda: Diageo brands like Johnnie Walker have, for many years, been distributed in this country through a third party distributor. The first formal agreement that we signed with distributors was in 1955. Of all the brands Johnnie Walker has been the most successful. So we have a representative office that represents Diageo Great Britain in Ethiopia. It is a small team of 15 people whose role is to market the brands; represent the image of Diageo; support the distributors and importers in building distribution systems for the brands that they import and give them guidance and standards of how we like those brands to show up for the consumers. We operate that unit as an independent unit from Meta. The employees of that company belong to Diageo office in Ethiopia. They have a general manager for that business who also doubles up as a trade representative for Diageo. The other is where we manufacture our beer in Sebeta where we have a network of distributors who we appoint through contracts. We also have a huge team of field service people who support them in the execution and activation of those brands. So that’s how we structured it.

My nearly two years here in Ethiopian have been exciting. From the point of the talent I’ve met in Ethiopia to the things we’ve been able to do together and just being part of the growth story of the country, it has been exciting. Fortunately, our business is doing well in spite of all the challenges. The owners of the business are feeling good about our participation in Ethiopia. Our president came to visit us two weeks ago and reviewed our strategy for the country. He is committed to further investment in the country. We have a lot of young talent coming through and we are very excited about that and export that to other countries. We launched Guinness recently, which is fantastic. As we all know Guinness is one of the most iconic brands in the world so being part of that story is fantastic.

We remain excited and committed to Ethiopia. We believe it is the right decision to be here. The economy is growing; the population is big which is good; we see a lot of young people coming into branded goods and the retail environment is growing quickly. We do support and like the national strategic plan which says soon we will be entering a phase that is private sector-led growth. So at a macro level everything we need to look at to consider going to a country are right. When you look at the beer sector, it is growing quite quickly in Ethiopia. Part of that is new wealth is being created and more people are getting into regular jobs and therefore have a steady income. The other reason is many young adults are coming of age to choose some of the brands. The third reason is these multinationals that you talk about coming and buying the breweries. They increase production capacity to fill up the supply challenges that were there seven or ten years ago. So on account of dynamic economic growth, a population that is getting into legal drinking age and the supply that is being improved by all of the players, I think, are the three main factors that are driving the current growth and we are excited about that. Our view is that it is going to remain as a high-growth market for the next three to five years. We see a lot of movement in the marketplace. We are hearing about acquisitions and new investments coming through. And we are excited about that because we are successful in places where competition has been even and fair. Our brands do well when there is a lot of fair competition in the marketplace. So if we maintain the level of competition we are seeing now, consumers will benefit from the quality of services and brands they get from us.

You just mentioned that you launched Guinness. What else do you have in store for Ethiopians? Are there other products that are going to be launched whether it is beer, non-alcoholic beverage or spirits?

As you probably know, Diageo globally is the leading premium spirits company. Our strategy in Africa is we would like to be a total alcohol beverage company. What that means is that we will continue doing what we do in other countries – produce and distribute spirits; produce and distribute beer and produce and distribute non-alcohol brands wherever we see the opportunity. In Ethiopia so far we have only had beer and non-alcoholic brands. Last year we launched a second non-alcoholic brand after Malta Guinness called Kuru. The intention there is to respond to the obvious opportunity that we saw for non-beer drinking occasions, non-beer drinking adults and non-beer drinking populations, for various reasons. Within the beer category, we still see there is an opportunity for expanding our portfolio and we are working on that. We have a fulltime innovation team of six people whose role is to always go around and see opportunities that exist in the market and determine how best we can respond. Obviously, for some of the innovations we are working on I can’t discuss now for confidentiality reasons but we have lots of projects that we are working on at the moment. Some are ready to be launched while others are possibly two years or so away from launch. So we have projects which are a mix between beer, non-alcoholic and spirits brands.

Talking about innovation, Meta introduced a beer brand a couple of years ago called Zemen which turned out to be a flop. What happened there? And what is the reception Guinness has been getting so far?

Across the world most innovations fail while few are successful. But that should not scare you from innovating. So we launched Zemen three years ago and it didn’t work well. The proposition we were putting forward, I think, was too early for its time. We’ve learned from that. We have since launched four brands – Malta Guinness, Azmera, Kuru and Guinness. All are doing very well. For you to be confident that your innovation brand has been well-established, you need three years. The only brand I can say we do think has been successful is Malta Guinness. For the others that are under three years we need to wait and see.

Within this market, all of us are learning the consumer taste profile. You go into a new market with what you know and some things could fail. We learn about the real consumer palate; what Ethiopians are looking for; what inspires Ethiopians to choose the brands they choose and what happens when there are many offers. I’m seeing fashion shops opening up and new cars on the streets every day. So, as consumers have all these things beyond the beer category the most important thing is remaining on the shopping list. In addition, this is a very youthful country and populations in youthful countries tend to flirt with brands much more than mature population like Europe and America. So our challenges are remaining relevant; how we deliver the value proposition that makes our brands exciting and being accessible in such a big and rural country.

Do you plan to export?

Export is interesting and is one of the things we committed to government when we acquired this business. But as you know you have to be competitive to export to other countries. So how do you remain competitive? Beer as you know tends to be a national brand so you really have to have a very unique proposition. We export Meta to places where there are a lot of Ethiopians like Italy, Canada and a bit to the UK but not as much as we’d like to. And the reason we’ve held back from being aggressive in exporting Meta is because we don’t have enough to sell in the country at the moment. We sell everything we produce and therefore we want to keep our commitment to Ethiopia fast. We are at the moment working on options on how to expand our capacity and once that comes through then we can come back to that export opportunity. For non-alcoholic brands, we export a bit of Malta Guinness to Djibouti but we control that as well. The reason for that is that returnable glasses are difficult for export business. And that is the other are we are looking into and how we can optimize that.

So what is your current market share? Industry analysts say that BGI is leading the pack followed by Heineken and Meta, respectively. Do you think the ranking is correct?

I don’t know the accurate numbers but we think we are number three at the moment. We are growing nicely so they should watch out (laughs).

One of the issues constantly raised in the beverage industry is that of bottles. What sorts of challenges exist in that regard?

When we bought the breweries from government, you might remember that all the brewers had similar bottles. They had a generic industry bottle. So all brewers produced and distributed all their brands in one similar type bottle. Over the last four years or so innovations have moved away from the generic bottles into newer ones because everybody is looking to make their brands unique and personalize the offers that they make to consumers. So as you have bottles that are unique to yourself, you are in better control of your distribution network and he identity of your brands and how it shows up to consumers. That is one fact.

Between when we bought the breweries to now – both on our side and our competitors’ – we are moving away from the generic bottle. There is a shift and soon everyone will have their own set of bottles. The second cycle I suspect that is going to happen is brands will move away from returnable glass to the non-returnable ones. The issue here is that you drive one way with a full glass then you return back with an empty glass filled with air. This is a challenge in all developing markets. The other challenge, which is difficult for all of us, is the rural nature of Ethiopia. You don’t have big cities with many populations. You have small cities that are located miles behind hills and valleys and that makes it difficult to get your glass as quickly as you want.  All we seek is – like everywhere else we operate in the world – there needs to be fair and even competition and allow consumers, who we fight for, to make their choice on account of the propositions we put before them. That’s how we know how to win. We don’t know how to win any differently.

What is Diageo doing in regards to capacity building, nurturing young talent and guiding them to leadership?

We’ve got four pillars that we have repeated many times. If these four pillars are working properly, you are successful as a business wherever you go. Out of these the fourth pillar is building the capacity and capability of nationals. It is our growth strategy in this country. You have to accept that the private sector is a new thing in Ethiopia. And because it is, you don’t have too much pool of readymade people to hire. So you have to create. Our industry is a fairly new industry which is becoming more automated and sophisticated. So even if you were to find them they are not as updated as we want them to be so we need to teach them. For these reasons, we think that we are better off creating our own leadership than trying to buy them off the market.

So our human resources strategy has got the following three packages. First we want the majority of our leaders and our employees to be talent we build internally and is tailor-made. We have a behavior and leadership standard in Diageo, which is different from other people, that we need to embed in our people. The second is we borrow some talent. For instance, I am from Uganda but I’ve been working in other markets. Here in Ethiopia there are 11 of us who are non-nationals. We come for a short period of time and pass the experience we have as we groom and nurture the talent here. The third is we buy some. There will always be one or two bright people who you can buy and say that person can do the kind of job I have. The third is the smallest of our strategy and the most expensive. Because of the competitive nature of the industry, it is now becoming more and more expensive to buy people with experience.

So we have what we call our graduate program where we hire a lot of graduates every year; between a dozen and 15. We know we will always lose some. That’s because they are good. We hire very good students from universities and take them through this three year fantastic program. We move them across the continent and sometimes Europe. By the time they finish the program they become very marketable. So there will always be people who are prepared to nick them and take them. That does not bother us because we believe that if we create a pool of professionals quickly across the industry, we all win. Eventually, the floating around and the switching of employers will reduce, because the persons who will have bought you have already groomed their own people. So yes we have lost some but we are not worried about that.

This year we have taken in a big number. We have taken in the first 10 and are in the process of finalizing the addition of another ten. The good news is that those who first came in when we came here have all now finished the program and have been appointed into very good jobs; some into engineering, packaging and all over across the business. So in the next two to three years a real bunch of strong Ethiopian leaders will be running the business to the standard and conduct that Diageo expects of anybody who works for Diageo in any country. So ones we’ve achieved that level, then the next level will be switching them across markets to enrich their experience.

One of the major challenges here in Ethiopia is corruption, which exists across industries including yours. How do you deal with that?

It is very difficult. It’s one of the things we discuss in our brewers association. Corruption is not unique to this country. It is a cancer that is across all the countries that we work in – developed and developing. But we do think that the reason it manifests itself in a much bigger way in Ethiopia is because private sector is new and most of the people that are coming into the private sector tend to focus on material gains. For instance, young people who see themselves joining private companies like ours have acquaintances in government and business and for some reason those acquaintances make a lot of money in these places. So what I do is I tend compare my lifestyle to others in the marketplace that are in government or in the export business and are living a better lifestyle than myself. So it is that comparison that leads to corruption.

The other facet to this is that the control systems in most of the companies that we are setting up or we acquired are not as strong as they should be. So every time your internal processes are not very solid and very strong, people will always find ways to exploit them and do something wrong. The final aspect is role modeling in the community where people grow up. There are not too many role models who do things right. Doing right is not an admirable virtue anymore. I think it is a crisis that we have across Africa. Unfortunately, people at all levels of leadership across Africa do not exhibit the virtues that young people can look up to and say that doing the right thing, having integrity and being ethical is something I would like to role model.  So what are we at Diageo doing about it? We are strengthening our processes. We are automating almost everything in our financing system, our production system and our procurement system so that we take away human interventions which create a bit of temptation. We are also strengthening our ethical leadership standard. We have a very stringent code of conduct in this business that we are embedding. We send our good leaders into communities and universities to role mode what we think doing right can do for you. We encourage our leaders to serve in charity boards and give weekend speeches to university students. It is going to take a bit of time but the core thing is strengthening your institutions and processes.

What’s your business philosophy?

My personal philosophy is influenced by my purpose in life. I have shared this with all my teams. My purpose in life is to unleash the genius in everyone. That is the thing that makes me wake up every day and that is what I do. I think all of us have good in us but all of us need an opportunity to demonstrate and show that good. In developing markets like Africa, we have a lot of talent and good people; so what those talented and good people need is that help early or at various stages in their life whether in business, private sector or public sector. So working from that purpose, my first philosophy is any business is as good as its people. So I want to inspire people to recognize that they have a lot of genius that they need unleash. I refuse to be tempted by the notion that right comes from the senior leaders and wrong comes from the junior people.

My other leadership philosophy is that private sector actually can catalyze national growth for developing countries in a much more profound way than developed countries. I do feel that running a successful private company has a catalytic effect in the communities we work for obvious reasons. The business we run has got the power to demonstrate what great can be like. We are working in a country where the stock exchange is not functioning; however, stock exchange would eventually come to this country. In that regard, investors want to participate in a company they trust. They should trust the leadership and philosophy of the company and the accuracy and integrity of the numbers that we report. So I do feel our being here helps in the development story of attracting foreign direct investment. The final thing is that we work for a company that has a community program. In some countries it is environmental protection, while in other countries it is education. Here in Ethiopia we have chosen to do ‘Water of Life’. It simply is delivering fresh water to communities that have water hardships. It is something that we are passionate about.

Any last words?

I would like to thank our Ethiopian consumers and partners. The first five years has been a lot of learning for us and we are excited about the partnerships we are creating. We are also very pleased by the reaction we are beginning to see from the Ethiopian consumers to some of the innovation brands. This being festive season, I would like to wish all our consumers, partners and employees Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year for those who follow the international calendar. The key message I would like to leave to everybody who enjoy our brands is to drink responsibly, don’t drink and drive and don’t misuse alcohol.

The federal Documents Authentication and Registration Agency (DARA) collected a record revenue of more than 323 million birr  in the just-ended fiscal year (2016/17), according to its performance report released Monday.

Alemeshet Meshesha, head of corporate communications, noted that services rendered during sale of houses and vehicles were the leading sources of revenue.

The report indicates that the sale of stamp duties amounted to 323 million birr, falling short of the target by some 27 million birr. The revenue was generated by rendering services to an average daily number of 2,712 customers, according to the agency.

It was also disclosed that 247 million birr was the amount of money that the agency had originally set to pour into government coffers; but managed only 228 million birr, a figure 30.9 million birr higher than the previous year’s.

According to the report, a total of 720, 211 cases were handled by the agency during the year (higher than the previous year’s by a margin of 81,497), achieving 96.35 percent of its plan. Similarly, the number of customers who received services reached 1.497 million (95.76 percent of target), 163,443 higher than the previous year’s.

Adoptions of new technology, capacity-building as well as a process of deep-renewal are credited for the better performance registered during the fiscal year, Alemeshet told The Reporter.

The agency is one of the major revenue-raising institutions among government organizations.

Meanwhile, the agency has, in relative terms, been praised for better organization and efficiency among organizations under the federal government.

Institutions such as Ethio-Telecom, Ethiopian Airlines, Commercial Bank of Ethiopia, National Lottery Administration, Ethiopian Shipping & Logistics Services Enterprise, BerhanennaSelam Printing Press, National Intelligence and Security Service (fees from immigration services like passport issuance) and Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation (EBC) are among top revenue-generating public entities.

It would not be an overstatement if one argues that Qatar’s fame took off after the launch of the currently prominent television network, Al Jazeera. The TV network has been the most visible brand to come out of the tiny nation. And true to form, in a relatively short period of time, it has managed to become a strong competition to the well-established global news outlets like BBC and CNN.

Positioned between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia, Qatar was nothing more than a remote desert settlement until the late 1930s. However, after it discovered huge amounts of natural gas, things started to change.

Now, Qatar is a high roller and is on top of the heap of a small group of elite countries that command the highest GDP per capita on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis – more than USD 100,000.

After Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani assumed power in 1995, Qatar has progressively achieved the status of being an Arab version of Switzerland or Luxemburg. However, quality of life was not the ultimate goal; the grand plan is having a resilient economy and strong regional and global political influence. And one of the many components for accomplishing that is by launching a credible, news network that was neither foreign-run nor a government mouthpiece, according to an article published in the New Republic magazine.

The TV network was formed in 1996 from the leftovers of a failed BBC-Saudi attempt to start an Arabic-language news channel. When Saudi censorship proved objectionable to the BBC, the Qataris jumped in, hiring over a hundred laid off BBC journalists and broadcasters, recruiting locals, and lending the network a whopping USD 137 million to get things going.

After it went on air with its Arabic-language channel, Al Jazeera took the Arab world by storm and gained the reputation of being an informative yet controversial news channel – the one thing that did not comfort the Saudis. By 1999, when the channel began 24-hour broadcasting, it had twelve international bureaus and employed over 500 people.

Though Al Jazeera was expected to be profitable within five years of its launch, it could not become a moneymaking entity. According to commentators at the time, the reason was that advertisers were allegedly influenced by Saudi and Kuwait not to advertise on Al Jazeera. Therefore, in 2001, Al Jazeera borrowed an additional USD 130 million from the Qatari government to keep the ball rolling. That was not the only plan. They had a big surprise in store for the global audience – an English-language news channel was in the works.

Al Jazeera English went live in 2006. The ambition was to provide a different narrative on global issues and cover parts of the world to which the global news titans like the BBC and CNN gave little to no attention – Southwest Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. This strategy paid off after five years when the Arab Spring broke out, and Al Jazeera became the go-to channel for international viewers.

Eventually, tensions between Saudi and Qatar were exacerbated by the Arab Spring in 2011, when Saudi Arabia and Qatar were seen as backing different sides.

That and a host of other factors tainted the relationship the network and Qatar had with other countries in the Middle East and six years later the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries led by Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic ties with Qatar and demanded the termination of Al Jazeera as one of the prerequisites for normalizing relations.

The GCC and Qatari quandary

To put things into perspective, the GCC is a strong political and economic alliance established in 1981 by Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

In the latest debacle, the Saudi-led group decided to cut ties with Qatar, citing their concern over the security and stability of their nations. They claimed that their tiny neighbor works to support “terrorism” and meddle in the internal affairs of its brethren in the GCC.

This sparked a series of diplomatic breakdowns between the GCC countries, including severing of diplomatic ties between three Gulf States (Saudi, Bahrain and UAE) and Qatar, an embargo imposed on Qatar, with air, sea and land borders shut down, and Qatari diplomats and residents expelled from those Gulf countries. Bahrain was the first to announce the severing of ties on June 5; it was followed shortly after by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt made their announcements within 10 minutes.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar responded to the announcements, saying that there is “no legitimate justification” for the actions taken by the countries that severed diplomatic relations. It added that the decision is a “violation of its sovereignty” and that it will work to ensure that it does not affect the citizens and residents of Qatar.

Eventually, in a matter of days, nine countries – Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Yemen, Eastern Government of Libya, Maldives, Mauritania and Senegal – cut diplomatic relations with Qatar. In addition, Jordan and Djibouti downgraded diplomatic relations with Qatar.

Kuwait, a neutral party in this fiasco, is mediating between the GCC countries involved in the current dispute. According to Giorgio Cafiero of Gulf State Analytics, a geopolitical risk consultancy based in Washington DC, both Kuwaitis and Omanis believe that an escalation of the conflict could be detrimental to the future of the GCC.

Parenthetically, there was a previous diplomatic rift in 2014 between Qatar and other Gulf countries. Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain pulled out their diplomats claiming that Qatar supported armed groups. However, the border remained open and Qataris were not expelled.

Tensions with Qatar have generally revolved around its alleged support for political Islamic movements, such as the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as complaints about Al Jazeera.

On June 7, the Saudi foreign minister said that Qatar must cease its support of groups such as Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. 

“We want to see Qatar implement the promises it made a few years back with regard to its support of extremist groups, to its hostile media and interference in affairs of other countries,” Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir told reporters in Paris on the aftermath of the rift.

There is also a tacit and at times clandestine actor in this debacle – Iran. Known for being Saudi’s hostile neighbor east of the Arabian Peninsula, the Iranians did not waste time in making their presence felt. Following the border shutdown, Iran offered Qatar food shipments. That, again did not make the Saudis happy.

According to Mahjoob Zweiri, a Middle East expert at Qatar University, a lengthy dispute may empower Iran in the region, especially if the tension between the Gulf countries escalates.

Catch-22: Africa and the Arabs

Though it has not been officially announced that the latest Gulf crisis would be discussed at the current African Union Summit, Mehari Taddele Maru, an international consultant on African Union affairs, is of the view that member states should discuss the issue and take a stand. That will help the continent in many ways, he said.

“Some African countries are facing pressures and inducements from both sides. One example is Somalia. The Horn of Africa country is being pressured by both sides. The decision that is going to be taken by Villa Somalia will have major effects. Opposing Qatar might create a favorable situation for the revival of Al Shabaab. In the same vein, if they [the Somalis] go against the wishes of the Saudis, instability will reign. So, it is a matter of survival for Somalia. Therefore, if Africa can be able to stand together, it will address such issues in one voice,” Mehari told The Reporter.

Ever since the gulf squabble started, African countries have been involved in one way or another. In that regard, analysts are warning that the decision to cut or downgrade diplomatic ties with Qatar by eight African countries could have a long-term impact.

“This is not good for Africa. This is rush decision-making and taking sides in a crisis that the leaders have no clear grasp of is dangerous and will scare investors away,” Adama Gaye, a Senegalese foreign policy expert, told Al Jazeera.

Two days after the Arab countries cut ties with Qatar, Senegal said it was recalling its ambassador to Qatar and expressed “active solidarity” with Riyadh.

Analysts say Dakar is likely to have automatically accepted the Saudi allegations against Qatar without questioning them.

“Security and tackling violent extremism are real issues in several African countries but there are strong economic factors at play here,” Africa analyst Antony Goldman told Al Jazeera, adding that Saudi Arabia has invested a lot of money recently in Africa and this gives it a lot of weight on the continent.

Senegal’s decision did not come as a surprise. It can be recalled that Dakar sent 2,100 soldiers in 2015 to Yemen as part of the Saudi-led coalition fighting Houthi rebels. Dakar said at the time that it sent its troops “to protect and secure the holy sites of Islam, Medina and Mecca”.

Unlike the rest of the continent, the Horn of Africa has been dragged into the squabble mainly because of its proximity. And member countries of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) are entwined to a certain degree.   

An IGAD member state that is currently entangled in this fiasco is Djibouti. The small Horn of Africa country has downgraded its diplomatic ties with Qatar, saying it took the decision “in solidarity with the international coalition against terrorism and violent extremism”.

Djibouti, which is known for hosting foreign military bases, said in January it was finalizing an agreement with Saudi Arabia to allow the Gulf state to build a military base. According to analysts, this is the likely reason behind Djibouti’s decision.

Another country in the equation is Eritrea. The Ministry if Information of Eritrea – a country which unlike Senegal is geographically close to the Gulf – announced on June 12 that it saw the Saudi-led initiative against Qatar as being “in the right direction,” but the statement also implied that Qatar alone was not to blame for terrorism in the region and called for an amicable resolution of the crisis.

Kjetil Tronvoll, Professor of Peace and Conflict studies at Bjørknes University College, said that Eritrea’s government “haven’t turned against Qatar as much as they have shown an inclination to accept the Saudi argument.”

Tronvoll, speaking with The Messenger, said that Eritrea’s position is “deliberately ambiguous.” He added that Asmara has thus far positioned itself “to possibly ride both horses, at least for the time being.”

Several factors explain Eritrea’s reluctance to sever ties with Qatar. According to Harry Verhoeven, a lecturer at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service in Qatar, Eritrea has previously found Qatar to be a reliable friend, even when Asmara’s relations were not good with either the West or other Gulf powers.

“This is bad news. The worry is that it will lead to a further destabilization in the sense that you could see a bidding war for loyalties…because the Saudis and Emiratis are almost certain to put very heavy pressure particularly on Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia to choose sides and to ditch their historical relationship with Qatar if the standoff would continue,” he said.

On his part, Mehari deems that it is difficult for IGAD member states to come to a common and unified position. “Decisions are taken mainly based on national interests,” Mehari said.

The Horn of Africa is highly affected by the ongoing Gulf crisis and the regional block, IGAD, is divided over the matter. “I don’t think there will be a uniform stand from the IGAD; however, as a secretariat it may have a stand on finding a peaceful and amicable solution to the problem,” Leulseged Girma, an expert on Middle Eastern affairs and a geopolitical analyst, told The Reporter.

On the other hand, other regional analysts say that these are small countries and do not have much political and economic clout beyond their borders.

“These countries are small-league players in Africa; forget about the rest of the world. These countries have negligible influence. But for Saudi, it seems it is quantity over quality,” Abdullahi Boru, a Nairobi-based regional security specialist, told Al Jazeera.

Comoros, Gabon, Niger and Chad were the other African countries that either cut ties or downgraded them.

Those small countries are also subject to pressures that go beyond economic incentives offered by the Gulf States, Gaye said.

“It is not a secret that bullying tactics have been applied. First financial incentives were offered and, if leaders turn them down, then Saudi Arabia has the Hajj leverage where it has threatened that no citizens from these countries will be allowed to perform the pilgrimage if they don’t take the Saudi side,” Gaye said.

Saudi Arabia, through a statement released by its embassy in France, refuted the allegation that they pressured African countries to cut ties with Qatar.

“The Saudi government strongly denies these allegations and we stress that no pressure was put on any African nation because every country has the right over its sovereignty,” the statement said. 

Countries such as Somalia and Ethiopia have remained neutral and declined to take sides. The two east African countries have even called for dialogue to end the rift.

Analysts say that the longer the crisis continues, the more likely many poor African countries will be dragged into it.

“African leaders have to show more muscle and must remain neutral. They should put aside all their personal interests,” Gaye said.

Leulseged seconds Gaye’s point. “The AU, as a continental organization, should take a neutral side on the matter,” he said.

Ed.’s Note: Neamin Ashenafi of The Reporter has contributed to this story.