Report warns rising temperatures, geopolitical shifts could exacerbate Horn instability
The failure of the UN Security Council and AU Peace and Security Council to respond to early warning signs have contributed significantly to the deterioration of peace in the Horn of Africa, states a UN Development Program report published this week.
UNDP’s 2024 Regional Human Development Report for the Horn of Africa, dubbed ‘Enhancing Prospects for Human Development through Regional Integration,’ criticizes the councils for failing to intervene and protect citizens from mass atrocities as dictated by internationally-recognized mandates.
“UN protocols, the responsibility to protect (R2P) principle, and the constitutive Act of the AU and its Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the AU Peace and Security Council require…the UN Security Council and the AU Peace and Security Council to take action. However, despite its moral significance and the considerable rhetorical support accorded to the R2P principle over the past two decades, the most recent wars in Sudan and Ethiopia provide further evidence of the failure of R2P to prevent wars—even given adequate early warning—with a consequential catastrophic humanitarian impact and accompanying egregious atrocities,” reads the report.
The R2P and the AU peace and security architecture have been challenged in five main areas, according to the UNDP.
Among these is conflict prevention. The report cites the Sudan and Tigray wars as evidence of either council’s failure to stop conflict escalation, and ensuing atrocities, through response mechanisms, diplomatic efforts, or targeted sanctions.
The report blasts both councils’ inability to respond to the conflicts or evaluate measures taken to protect civilians, including the provision of humanitarian corridors and civilian protection areas, the establishment of no-fly zones, the deployment of peacekeeping forces, and monitoring and verification mechanisms.
The report cites the northern war inflicted over USD 20 billion in losses in Ethiopia. It states Sudan is worse off, estimating USD 125 billion in economic losses in the first year of conflict.
“Conflict and violence have brought loss of life, injuries, destruction of property, and development reversals to millions of people in the Horn. Many have been compelled to leave their homes, communities, and native countries in search of a more secure existence,” reads the report.
At least 10.5 million people have been displaced by the fighting in Sudan, according to the report.
The figures are consistent with data in the 2022 Global Peace Index, which found that violent conflict in the Horn of Africa caused USD 163 billion in losses and damages, representing 29 percent of the global total.
The UNDP estimates the losses are even greater for 2023, aggravated by the Sudan conflict.
The report highlights that fighting in Sudan has severely disrupted the agrifood sector, leaving half of the population in dire need of humanitarian assistance.
“Staple goods have witnessed dramatic price hikes, basic food imports (e.g., wheat flour, oil, tomato paste) have become scarce, while access to cash and transportation has become arduous in many parts of the country,” it reads.
Sudan’s war is interlinked with geopolitical developments in the wider region, according to the UNDP.
“Sudan borders seven countries, each with its own set of security challenges that touch closely on the politics of Khartoum,” reads the report.
It mentions the Nile dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt, fighting in Darfur and spillover into Chad, and tensions and conflict in the neighboring Tigray and Amhara regions as relevant to the war.
“Meanwhile, weapons and soldiers from the Central African Republic, Chad, and Libya often flow across the Horn’s porous borders. The Sudanese government has invited Gulf states to invest in fertile areas that border the Nile,” it reads.
The report mentions that Russia and Turkey are looking to establish military bases in Port Sudan, which would grant them access to the vital Red Sea shipping route and strategic military chokepoints.
“The multidimensional nature of structural vulnerabilities lies at the heart of the challenges facing HoA countries,” it reads.
The UN estimates there were at least 54 million food-insecure people in Eastern Africa as of March 2024. Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia are the most concerning, accounting for two-thirds of the total.
The region has also seen the displacement of 23.4 million people, according to the UNDP.
The effects of climate change are another urgent concern, as rising heat levels and increased variability in precipitation patterns continue to wreak havoc on agriculture in the region.
The report indicates the region has suffered at least 16 droughts since 2000, with the worst of these occurring between 2018 and 2023.
“Most harvests in Somalia and semi-arid regions in Kenya and Ethiopia failed and some 3.6 million head of livestock perished, pushing some 16.7 million people into acute food insecurity,” it reads.
The report estimates that a four degree Celsius rise in temperature could inflict a 10 percent drop in GDP in Ethiopia alone.
The UNDP urges governments to cooperate to realize the sustainable management of water, energy, and food resources.
It notes that Ethiopia hosts the headwaters of the region’s two major perennial water systems: the Nile and the Juba-Shabelle river basins, which play crucial roles in the sustainable management of water resources.
Nonetheless, the report forecasts an addition of 5.6 percent GDP for Ethiopia, and 3.3 percent for the Horn region, leading up to 2030; arising from economic reforms.
