The 32nd Arab League Summit that took place last week in the Saudi Arabian coastal city of Jeddah followed a similar pattern. Syria’s return was granted for the first time since 2011 at the summit, which welcomed representatives of all 22 member nations.

After its meeting on May 19, 2023, the Arab League Council issued resolutions with a primary focus on ensuring the security of Arab countries. One of these resolutions is concerned with GERD. The resolution asserts that “the water security of Egypt and Sudan is an integral part of the water security of the Arab world.” It rejected any action that affects Egypt and Sudan’s rights on the Nile, making the GERD case a threat to the water security of the entire Arab world, not just Egypt and Sudan.

The League has taken a very firm stance on this issue, departing from its usual practice of merely condemning Ethiopia’s unilateral filling and demanding a legally binding agreement.

Samuel Tefera (PhD), an expert and lecturer at the Center for African and Oriental Studies at Addis Ababa University (AAU), insists that the League’s stance toward Egypt and Sudan is blatantly partisan. “Gamal Abdel Nassir exerted considerable effort to Arabize the Nile agenda. Ultimately, the League declared that the Nile issue is on the water security agenda of the entire Arab world.”

According to the expert, this will have a negative impact on Ethiopia’s relations with the Middle East. “They declared GERD to be a threat to water security in the Arab world. This falls just short of action. Next time, they may say that they took action. They have told us explicitly that the Nile poses a security threat to the Arab world,” Samuel explained.

Members also agreed that until Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt reach a binding agreement, this resolution will continue to be reported as a declaration in their respective reports, indicating that the issue of GERD will remain on the League’s agenda until their demand is met.

The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a response on May 22, 2023, two days after the League passed the resolution. It noted that the recent summit of the League of Arab States regarding the GERD echoed Egypt’s rhetoric and hostile actions.

“This resolution is an affront to the African Union and its member states, which are working toward an amicable negotiated resolution to the GERD matter. It runs contrary to the history of the people of Africa and the Arab world,” reads MoFA’s statement.

Egypt has been attempting to use its diplomacy on any regional or global stage to promote its version of the narrative regarding Ethiopia’s national project. The week prior to the summit, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry made similar statements to local media. He accused Ethiopia of buying time while demonstrating “no political will to settle the issue.”

In addition to regional forums, Egypt petitioned the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to compel Ethiopia to reach a binding agreement before filling the dam. Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia signed the Agreement on the Declaration of Principles (ADP). They agreed that construction of the dam would continue concurrently with negotiations on the filling and operation guidelines and rules.

In September 2021, the UNSC urged the three to reach an acceptable and legally binding agreement within a reasonable timeframe. Nonetheless, the UNSC directed the case to be resolved under the supervision of the AU. Egypt uses the League as leverage while the African Union works on the matter at the same time.

On the one hand, the Arab League demands that the UNSC and AU exert pressure on Ethiopia to reach a legally binding agreement. On the contrary, it issues statements that undermine the AU’s and UN’s efforts.

“The Arab world never believed in the AU’s mandate to resolve this case,” Samuel says. “They claim that Ethiopia is filling the dam unilaterally. But this is not true. Ethiopia is filling the dam based on the 2015 Principles of Declaration signed by Abdel Fatah El-Sisi, Omar al-Bashir, and Hailemariam Desalegn.”

Samuel indicated that both Egyptian and Sudanese experts agreed on the phased filling of the GERD.

“They agreed that Ethiopia would fill the dam gradually only during the summer, when there is an abundance of water in Ethiopia. This is a formal agreement, and Ethiopia is filling the dam in accordance with that.”

There is a quantified amount of water determined for each phase, which can take up to seven years under the phased filling tri-partite agreement.

“This phased filling is not based solely on the interests of Ethiopia but also on the consent of Egypt and Sudan.”

Ethiopia is currently preparing for its fourth round of filling in the coming months. Since the 2011 groundbreaking, Ethiopia has not failed to provide any scientific or factual truth in the past decade. However, neither Egypt nor the Arab League appear convinced by this fact.

The Ethiopian government appears equally exhausted by such irrational beliefs.

Ethiopia asserts that Egypt is attempting to preserve its colonial monopoly on the Nile.

“Ethiopia calls on Egypt to abandon its unlawful claim to the monopoly of the Nile River, citing a defunct colonial agreement and a colonial-mentality-based position, negotiate in good faith, and reach a win-win outcome,” MoFA’s latest statement reads.

Constantinos Berhutesfa, a senior political economy analyst and former anti-corruption commissioner for the African Union, argues that Egypt’s claim has no basis in reality.

Egypt is aware that GERD offers numerous advantages, according to Constantinos, who believes they are uneasy because they think Ethiopia is violating their rights. “GERD is an electric generating dam that ensures a steady water supply for downstream nations,” he explained.

He affirms that the amount of water that evaporates from the Aswan dam is greater than the amount of water used for irrigation in Egypt. “Because Egypt is a lowland, the rate of evaporation is exceptionally high. In contrast, Ethiopia is a highland, so the amount of water that can evaporate from the GERD reservoir is negligible.”

Egypt is also concerned that Ethiopia plans to construct additional dams on the Abbay River. “There is no scenario or international law that forces Ethiopia to enter into an agreement to develop its own water,” Constantinos said.

He believes the statements issued by the League do nothing but cast a shadow on Ethiopia’s relationship with Middle Eastern countries.

Samuel concurs.

“The Arab world continues to create pressure. In fact, Ethiopia is not making unilateral filling, though it may seem so,” he said. He claims the Egyptians have tried everything, including barring Ethiopia’s access to external financing for the dam.

As long as Ethiopia’s economy is able to finance it, he says the dam will be finalized.

The drought has ruled this land for far too long.

Its barren grip tightens each year, squeezing what little life remains from parched fields and weary souls. Analysts point their fingers at corruption, negligence and a misplaced sense of apathy that allowed this drought to fester into a catastrophe.

Now tens of millions suffer. Livelihoods wither. Lives crumble to dust.

Five rainy seasons have failed in a row, each planting time bringing more hardship, more desperation. Scientists warn that a sixth consecutive drought looms – something not seen for decades. Crop failures plague Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda. Challenges mount while resilience weakens. Families are pushed to the breaking point.

Political maneuvering and fancy speeches don’t fill empty stomachs or quench thirst. Corruption siphons away what little resources remain, like leeches sucking life from a once lush land. The people carry on, holding tight to what hope they have left. But each day they become a little thinner, a little weaker, a little less hopeful that this unrelenting drought will ever break. Scientists predict this could become the new normal.  But the people of the Horn still believe rain will return, crops will thrive once more, and life will nourish this thirsty ground again.

The drought has taken an immense toll on livestock in the Horn of Africa, with at least eight million cattle reported killed. This has prompted many people to migrate in search of water, grazing for their animals or food for their families.

Nearly 20 million people in the region are suffering from food insecurity, according to the UN Refugee Agency.

A recent study by the World Weather Attribution Group found that the drought was caused by human-induced climate change, not just lack of rain. Higher temperatures from global warming have made the land and plants significantly drier through increased evaporation.

The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission has called for immediate action in the Oromia and Somalia regions due to the devastating effects of the drought in Ethiopia. The Commission cited the absence of an early warning system, inadequate data and a delayed response.

The Ethiopian Institution of the Ombudsman criticized officials for failing to provide an early warning system during the climate-induced drought in affected areas, according to its findings released last month.

A report by the Institute for Security Studies found that the Horn of Africa contributes only 0.1 percent of global emissions. It calls for regional cooperation to recognize mitigation as an essential adaptive mechanism that must be implemented carefully to foster growth.

Scholars and conservative groups point to one of the bigger issues: how money from donors for green projects in developing countries is transferred, while climate finance comes from larger, industrialized and wealthier nations that contribute more to climate change, despite the looming global threat.

At the 2009 climate talks in Copenhagen, rich countries pledged to spend USD 100 billion annually by 2020. This would be to assist developing countries in coping with the effects of climate change, facilitate their transition to low-carbon, climate-resilient economies and societies, and mitigate the disproportionate effects of climate change on these nations.

Unfortunately, the goal of providing climate finance from wealthy countries to developing nations has not been achieved. Rich countries have failed to meet their funding commitments.In the meantime, the most vulnerable communities continue to suffer the impacts of climate change. This includes people in the Horn of Africa, who have been disproportionately affected by the changing global climate.

According to leading climate change researcher and lecturer Beyene Tekelu at Hawassa University, while the effects of climate change are similar everywhere, the Horn of Africa region has limited adaptive capacity due to its geographical location.

Beyene says the region’s location in terms of meteorological and climatic characteristics is relatively unstable compared to other regions for natural reasons. However, methane gas evaporation is relatively low in the region.

The researcher stressed the need for regional leaders to at least try to play a coordinated role in multiple international forums to push for and demand compensation for forestation efforts, carbon funds, lost revenues and any damages the region may face.

Beyene asserts that regional leaders must develop a comprehensive plan and strategy, push further and meet with wealthy, industrialized nations. Since carbon financing is both an economic and political issue, he believes assertive leadership is needed in forums with industrialized nations.

The researcher cited the bold visibility of the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s regime in climate conferences and its impact in uniting the continent for climate politics. However, he said while Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s tree planting efforts appear successful, global warming in Ethiopia will not be mitigated by tree planting alone unless regional leaders make a political commitment.

Beyene said “The injustice will be resolved if the Eastern African bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the continental bloc, the African Union (AU), unite on the issue of the promised but unfulfilled funds.”

He explained the need to involve climate experts and researchers as political advisors to secure funding for carbon monitoring efforts.

Senior climate change expert Meseret Abdisa said the impacts of climate change are “borderless,” though wealthy nations are also affected, the shock is greatest in poorer nations like the Horn of Africa. He stressed the importance of united action and abandoning the current passive leadership.

Meseret said the fact that 8 million people die annually due to climate change indicates an alarming issue requiring immediate action. Though the “polluter pays” principle exists, lack of coordinated political leadership has left the region vulnerable.

“In short, unless developing nations, particularly climate shock regions, continue to speak out, the impact could become unmanageable,” Mesret said. He believes leaders should avoid inaction and stop claiming food shortages are the only public problem while ignoring the climate change threat.

In an interview with The Reporter, Belgian climate scientist Jean Pascal – a candidate for IPCC chairperson – said the IPCC has repeatedly noted that developed countries are primarily responsible for past greenhouse gas emissions, while the severe impacts of climate change are mostly felt by vulnerable populations and countries in the developing world.

The professor said this fundamentally unjust situation has been discussed in prior IPCC reports, including from an ethical standpoint. Climate change is a global issue requiring international cooperation, he noted.

“As we are talking about the habitability of the only inhabitable planet in the solar system, caring for it is a common responsibility. But we also know these responsibilities are differentiated, as rich countries have more resources, money and technology than poorer countries,” Pascal added.

Ultimately, achieving meaningful progress on climate change will require cooperation between developed and developing countries based on shared responsibility for caring for the planet. But it will also require recognizing that responsibilities are differentiated given wealth disparities, as many climate justice advocates maintain.

Zambia: Defaulting on Debt amid Economic Turmoil

Copper-rich Zambia has experienced a significant economic decline in recent years, primarily due to declining commodity prices and the global pandemic. In November 2020, the country failed to make a USD 42.5 million payment on one of its Eurobonds, making it the first African nation to default on its sovereign debt during the pandemic. China is Zambia’s largest bilateral creditor, holding approximately 30 percent of the country’s total USD 8.3 billion external debt.

The delay in debt restructuring has exacerbated the nation’s economic difficulties. It has been difficult for the Zambian government to fund essential public services such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure initiatives.

The delay in the process of debt restructuring is also diminishing investor confidence, reducing foreign direct investment and foreign exchange earnings. This week, United Nations experts expressed grave concern over delays in reaching an agreement on the restructuring of Zambia’s debt and the resulting negative impact on human rights and the livelihoods of the people.

“We are worried that despite positive reforms undertaken by the Government of Zambia, the delays in sovereign debt restructuring compromise its ability to mobilise and maximise resources for the full realisation of human rights, as per its obligations under international human rights law,” the experts said.

“One of the major reasons for this delay in debt restructuring is the lack of a globally coordinated multilateral sovereign debt mechanism that places traditional and private lenders at an equal footing,” the experts added.

Ethiopia: Stalled Debt Relief and Economic Uncertainty

Ethiopia, another nation severely affected by the pandemic, has had trouble obtaining debt relief. Ethiopia requested debt restructuring early in 2021 under the G20’s Common Framework for Debt Treatments, a multilateral initiative designed to facilitate debt relief for eligible nations.

However, the process has been sluggish. China is Ethiopia’s greatest creditor, holding approximately 25 percent of the country’s total external debt, which hovers around USD 29 billion. The lack of progress in debt restructuring has increased economic uncertainty, which has been compounded by the two-year conflict in the Tigray region.

As Ethiopia navigates these obstacles, the IMF and WB have been providing financial assistance and policy advice. In September 2021, the IMF authorized a disbursement of USD 407 million to assist Ethiopia in addressing the economic consequences of the pandemic and the conflict in Tigray. Despite this aid, the delay in debt restructuring continues to bear heavily on the economic prospects of the country.

The Ethiopian government has warned that if the process of reducing debt is not speed up, it is likely that the country will default on its loan. In the next two years, Ethiopia’s annual debt service payments will double from two billion dollars to four billion dollars. This comes on top of a rising import bill due to the rising cost of imported commodities, including fuel, on the global market, causing concern that the 120 million-people nation’s foreign exchange shortage will worsen.

In the past three years, the availability of foreign exchange has decreased, contributing to a significant decline in reserves. The decline in Official Development Assistance (ODA) between 2020 and 2022 was substantial. The Ministry of Finance’s official statistics indicate that ODA has decreased from USD 4.7 billion in 2020 to USD 3 billion in 2021 and USD 2.7 billion in 2022, a decline of more than 40 percent.

Nicknamed “the Warm Heart of Africa”, the landlocked country and home to over 10 ethnic groups, Malawi is believed to be one of the safest places in Africa. With a population of about 19 million people, most of them share ethnicity with neighboring countries such as Zambia and Mozambique.

Malawians often receive compliments for being the kindest people, which is why their country is called the “warm heart of the continent.”

Like most nations in Africa, agriculture is the dominant sector in Malawi. Tobacco and tea production are major sources of the country’s export earnings. Having South Africa as the major origin of its imports, commodities such as gas, fertilizer, and coal make up the lion’s share of its import bill.

Air transport and conference tourism have not been the best-performing sectors for Malawi. Malawian Airlines, in which Ethiopian Airlines owns a 49 percent stake, has a fleet of only two aircraft and operates to seven destinations.

However, the Kamuzu International Airport has this week been busy since May 1, 2023, receiving guests from about 21 African countries and development partners globally for the commemoration of a decade of service for one of the 10 institutions under the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA).

As the first regional authority safeguarding citizens of 21 nations in Eastern and Southern Africa from anti-competitive practices, the COMESA Competition Commission (CCC) turns 10 years old. Under the auspices of the COMESA Secretariat, the Commission is mandated to inspect and monitor anti-competitive practices in the 21 member states, including Ethiopia.

Two days before its 10-year anniversary, which took place on May 4–5, 2023, in Lilongwe, Malawi, the CCC also conducted a workshop for business reporters in the COMESA region at the same venue.

Presenting recent developments of regional integration in the COMESA bloc, Christopher Onyango (PhD), director of Trade and Customs and Monetary Affairs Division at the COMESA Secretariat, briefed reporters on the data from 2021, which showed how the member states trade in a meager amount within the bloc.

Intra-COMESA trade was below 10 percent of the trade between member countries in the reporting period, although exports within the bloc increased from USD 10 billion in 2020 to USD 13 billion the next year, as the Director explained. Trade potential among COMESA member countries is believed to be over USD 100 billion. The GDP of the member countries together stands at USD 805 billion.

Export of commodities from COMESA to the rest of the world increased by USD 56 billion from USD 100 billion in 2020. And the import of commodities from other countries to the COMESA region was USD 227 billion in 2021, about a 26 percent increase from the previous year.

Ethiopia is one of the few countries buying from non-COMESA member countries worldwide and contributing to the growth of importing bills in the region.

“We have come to realize that movement of persons and connectivity are key, and to tell you the truth, they are constraining the growth of continental integration. Let alone if you’re doing business, it is very difficult for people to move due to a lot of requirements that make it difficult for movements,” he said, explaining how intra-COMESA trade couldn’t prosper. “It is difficult even for COMESA secretariat staff.”

In light of these trade activities within the COMESA member states, the Commission has been functioning as a watchdog for the welfare of consumers. Since it began operation in January 2013, the CCC has been reviewing and approving mergers and acquisitions of companies to ensure fair competition in the Common Market.

Based in Lilongwe, Malawi, the Commission has also been overseeing business activities in the member countries, which together have over 660 million people, half the population of the 55 countries in Africa. Among the member countries, Ethiopia and Egypt alone cover about 35 percent of the whole population.

Addressing the opening remarks at the business reporters’ workshop on behalf of Willard Mwemba (PhD), the director and chief executive officer (CEO) of the Commission, Mary Gurure, manager for the legal department, said that her office was involved in several investigation cases.

Among the cases mentioned as examples include Ethiopian Airlines not compensating passengers for their lost property and Malawian Airlines failing to transport passengers to their destination after a flight was rerouted due to bad weather.

Involved in several high-profile antitrust cases in its attempt to assure competition enforcement and consumers welfare, the CCC reviewed and approved 369 merger cases in industries that vary from beverage companies to food processing, airlines, telecom, to chemical companies.

Beside the merger cases, stats presented by the CCC revealed that about 44 consumer protection cases were handled, over 40 restrictive business practices were assessed, and three businesses got fined for non-compliance with the regulations of COMESA.

Ethiopia could be involved in 156 of the merger cases from the total of 369 mergers the Commission reviewed, either through indirect relations or with companies functioning in Ethiopia directly, according to Sandya Booluck, senior analyst at the Merger and Acquisitions department of the Commission.

So far, the CCC has reviewed and approved five major mergers happening in Ethiopia, with the BGI Ethiopia and Meta Abo Brewery mergers being the latest, which the CCC approved with conditions in 2022, she told The Reporter.

“The 369 mergers since inception are as of March 2023, and in terms of the operations of the merging parties, they have a turnover of USD 210 billion in the common markets,” Sandya said. “In 31 of these transactions, we approved the transactions with conditions in order to address certain competition and public interest concerns that were likely to arise.”

The Commission is currently undergoing some reforms and is engaged in the preparation of upcoming projects, which include policy changes, according to Sandya. Reviewing their regulations, the forthcoming changes “will see a complete overhaul of the COMESA merger control regime,” which entails shifting from a non-suspensory to a suspensory regime.

“Specifically in relation to mergers, the proposed changes are going to be a complete overhaul. We want to shift from a non-suspensory to a suspensory regime. A suspensory regime means the parties have to notify, and the parties have to wait for approval or a decision from the authority before proceeding,” Sanday explained.

Since the start of hostilities more than a week ago, Khartoum and its citizens have endured massive suffering. Eyewitnesses who were fleeing the capital reported seeing human corpses lying on the streets, where no one dared to collect them out of fear. Despite the decreased sound of guns where much of the conflict has taken place, residents are now still residing in a war zone in what was once a thriving metropolis. Crossfire and heavy shelling tore the city apart during the bloody street battle.

The worst aspect of the conflict in Sudan is that it is raging throughout the country’s major cities, neighborhoods, and places of employment, making it impossible for citizens to access food, water, or electricity. The damage caused by explosions to vital infrastructure, which prevents the populace from having access to running water and power, is even more upsetting. Many residents of Khartoum, including a sizable portion of those who are fasting during Ramadan, have been compelled to endure the fighting in order to fetch basic necessities.

On Sunday, the United States (US) announced that a team would be sent to the disaster area to coordinate humanitarian access. The team, according to Samantha Power, director of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), would prioritize those who needed it most. “We give the biggest importance to providing people in need with life-saving humanitarian help,” she said.

The unrest in Sudan has resulted in the unfortunate loss of eight Ethiopian lives and left four individuals of the same origin injured. The Ethiopian embassy has admitted the danger.

It is currently registering a significant number of Ethiopians who wish to travel out of the capital. The fighting has forced individuals from 23 different nations to leave their homes and seek refuge elsewhere. As a consequence, refugees from numerous countries, including Sudanese citizens, are also seeking sanctuary in Ethiopia. Others have gathered at a border crossing with Egypt and at a port city on the Red Sea, urgently trying to flee their country’s carnage.

As the escape route, South Africa joins other nations in the race to provide safe passage for overseas nationals. According to South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, his nation will “assist other nationals” from “our region” who are stranded in Sudan. His government claims to have started evacuating scores of its nationals who are trapped in Sudan.

According to reports, a growing list of countries are able to evacuate their inhabitants, even though routes out remain limited and fraught with risk. Many have left the city and traveled elsewhere in the nation, while others have crossed the border into neighboring nations. Nearly 100 people were transported by helicopter after the US State Department acknowledged that one of its citizens had died in Sudan. Before admitting that there was a “severely limited” likelihood of evacuating others, the UK government also transported British diplomats and their families in a “complex and rapid” operation. But many Sudanese fear the two sides will escalate their battle once the international evacuations are over.

If the conflict worsens, it will further splinter the country and, even worse, draw in neighboring nations. Several governments are attempting to bring the warring factions together in order to resolve their differences. The regional bloc also agreed to send their presidents, but it proved unsuccessful.

The impending but needless war, in Alex De Waal’s opinion, will continue unless it is swiftly resolved. He asserts that while the current conflict may be a struggle for state dominance, other regional and international actors will continue to pursue their objectives. In order to heighten the wrath, he said, “Actors may throw their cash, weapons supplies, and perhaps even their troops.”

De Waal asserts that the two power stragglers pursue autonomous, parallel foreign policies that support various foreign interests in Sudan, but it is uncertain whose direction the conflict will ultimately take.

“The external powers active at the moment are Egypt (pro-Burhan) and Libyan National Army (LNA) leader Khaftar (pro-Hemedti); the UAE leans towards Hemedti, while Qatar and Turkey are waiting to see if the Islamists can come back with Burhan,” he told The Reporter.

He added that Eritrea is also stirring things up in favor of Hemedti. In his opinion, despite the fact that the federal government of Ethiopia has a much stronger relationship with al-Burhan, the government’s position is dependent on Eritrea’s position.

Another external power is the Wagener Group, a Russian paramilitary force. There has been no definitive evidence found to support the claim. However, because of their long-standing associations with the country’s former leader, Omar al-Bashir, the US and the EU have both targeted their activities. The group’s leader denied the accusations.

No “Wagener” teams, he proclaimed, were present in Sudan. The Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, did, however, reaffirm the legitimacy of their presence on Tuesday by describing it as “legitimate”. He said, “Sudan’s legitimate authorities have the right to use the services of the Wagner group.”

Despite two weeks of fighting, the situation in Sudan remains unresolved. Numerous residents of Khartoum have been compelled to flee to neighboring provinces or existing camps within Sudan, where survivors of past conflicts reside.

As of this writing, about 300 civilians have been killed. More than 2,000 people have been injured, and that number is likely to climb as many bodies are still lying in the streets where the fighting has persisted. International organizations and neighboring countries, including Ethiopia, called for a halt to the conflict, but their efforts ultimately failed.

The dispute between the Sudanese generals is a result of a poorly managed transfer of power following the ousting of autocratic dictator Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who ruled the country for nearly three decades.

Hemedti and al-Burhan had been devoted aides to Sudan’s leader, al-Bashir, before their relationship hit rock bottom.

The civil war in Darfur has played a role in Hemedti’s rise to prominence. The former businessman-turned-military member was instrumental in Bashir’s execution of his grand military operation against the rebel organization. Over 300,000 ethnic Africans were killed in Darfur at the hands of Hemedti’s Janjaweed militia, which had the support of the government and was ordered to suppress the rebel groups by the president.

Hemedti was able to gain the trust of the president and transform the militia into a formal force, now known as the Rapid Support Force (RSF), after the incident for which Bashir was indicted for war crimes and genocide. In the meantime, Hemedti’s involvement in the export of gold and even camels has also contributed to his growing influence.

Al-Burhan, born in Kundu, northern Sudan, in 1960, is in charge of the national army. Sudan, Egypt, and Jordan all contributed to Al Burhan’s military education. As Sudan’s military attaché, he traveled the world, including China, representing his country. The general commands a military force of over 100,000 strong, the same size as the RSF’s.

During Bashir’s rule and in the immediate aftermath of the coup d’état orchestrated by the national army that ousted him from power three years ago, Hemedti and al-Burhan cooperated without trouble. Few anticipated a conflict between the two armed forces, given that they had already reached consensus to unify their forces.

Neither the RSF nor the army disagrees with the establishment of a combined army during the transition from a military to a civilian government in Sudan. Disagreement centers on who should be the next commander of the combined military and how long that should take. The national army wants the unification to be completed within two years, whereas the RSF demanded a 10-year delay before the unification could be completed.

A disagreement over the transfer of suspects, including Bashir, to the International Criminal Court (ICC) over allegations of war crimes by the military and its allies during the 2003 conflict in Darfur has also contributed to the end of what experts refer to as “the partnership of mutual interests” between the two armed forces. Hemedti rejects the demand for accountability for past atrocities, such as the Darfur genocide.

Jeffery Feltman, the former US special envoy for the Horn of Africa, referred to the relationship between the two generals as a “marriage of convenience” in an opinion piece published in the Washington Post this week. He says the two engaged in a “partnership of mutual interests” that undermined civilian hopes for democratic government and pushed back against attempts to hold perpetrators of crimes like the massacre in Darfur to account.

“In the end, that partnership did not define who would end up being on top,” Feltman says. “So what you have now is a fight to the death over who is going to prevail, and should military rule continue in Sudan?”

The partnership between the two generals, according to the US diplomat, was “premised on undermining, delaying, and ultimately derailing Sudan’s transition to democratic, civilian rule.”

On December 5, 2022, the Sudanese military and a coalition of major civilian actors signed a framework agreement, clearing the way for a new civilian government more than a year after the military seized full authority in an October 2021 coup that resulted in the overthrow of civilian Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.

According to the agreement, a new prime minister was to be appointed by April 11, 2023, at the latest. The deadline has passed, however, due to disagreements over the incorporation of the RSF into the army.

The warring parties remain unable to reach an agreement through negotiation, although there have been dire predictions that the country may descend into civil war.

Alex de Waal, the executive director of the World Peace Foundation and a research professor, expressed his concern and cautioned that if the ethnic element of the conflict is not going to be managed carefully, it could exacerbate the situation.

“Ethnic factors will probably manifest. The split has historically been more regional than ethnic, but this may change,” he warned. He says conflict fragmentation combined with ethnic massacres or displacement and the formation of local ethnic alliances are factors that could drive the shift.

Contributed by Abraham Tekle

The Organization has pledged to reduce oil production by 3.7 percent, or around 3.66 million barrels per day. But beginning on May 1, 2023, a daily reduction of 1.2 million barrels will be implemented until the end of the year. Should the price continue to fall, they have decided to cut production by an additional 3.66 million barrels per day.

Western countries, especially the United States, have always been critical of what OPEC+ countries do. A few months ago, in October 2022, the same group cut the amount of oil they make each day by about two million barrels. The US has been upset by their choice since last October and again this month, saying that the move is unadvisable “at this time given market uncertainty.”

Since their last decision, prices have fluctuated dramatically, and this month is no exception. After the price of a barrel of crude oil dropped to its lowest point of USD 84 in September 2022, OPEC’s move to cut production pushed the price up to USD 96 the following month. However, the market did not remain stable as the Organization had anticipated. Even though it was projected that prices would go up because oil production was going down, there was no sign that the price of a barrel of oil would increase.

Before the decision was made at the beginning of April, a barrel of crude oil was being sold for approximately USD 80, but immediately after the decision, which would go into effect in May, oil prices increased by approximately USD 10 per barrel due to speculation, a situation that has adversely impacted import-dependent countries like Ethiopia.

At USD four billion, a big chunk of Ethiopia’s foreign currency revenue goes toward importing petroleum products every year. This is the same amount of money that the country made from exports in just one year, so petroleum bills have been the biggest problem for the government.

Managers of the Ethiopian Petroleum Supply Enterprise, a state-owned company whose function is to bring petroleum products into the country, are worried that this new development could throw off their plans for the year.

When the Enterprise negotiates deals for a year’s worth of petroleum procurement, it does so with only the shipping and related costs already established in advance. When a shipment is ready, the price of fuel would be set by looking at the global fuel market.

Taking all the standard operating procedures into account, the Enterprise’s CEO, Tadesse Hailemariam, is concerned about the fresh development in the global oil market.

“Any increase in the price of fuel would raise the country’s foreign currency spending. Obviously, a rise in gas prices would have an impact on the local commodity market,” he said. “There is no doubt that we will bear the consequences.”

Tadesse, who is both an expert in the sector and a concerned professional, has been keeping an eye on the latest events in the global oil market. According to him, the reason that the OPEC+ countries provide for stabilizing the market is nothing more than an irony, as he believes that it would rather destabilize the market.

Ethiopia’s demand for petroleum is expected to rise as the country’s economy recovers following the end of the war in northern Ethiopia involving Tigray, Afar, and Amhara regions. Benzene imports were 2.5 million liters per day on average last year, while diesel imports were nine million liters. The trend for diesel remains unchanged this year, but benzene demand has increased slightly, with the current daily import of benzene standing at 2.8 million liters, according to Tadesse.

There are repercussions felt not just in Ethiopia but also in other countries.

Recent events have shown how the once-dominant Western countries are falling behind in the new world order. Aside from the oil cartel group’s resolve to restrict oil production, the globe has been watching how certain increasingly powerful countries are preparing to make de-dollarization a reality.

The pursuit of de-dollarization is accelerating more rapidly than ever before, with the BRICS countries redoubling their efforts to render the USD irrelevant in their trade. The name BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the five Asian, African, and Latin American countries regarded as the leading emerging economies.

The geopolitical bloc was founded two decades ago to provide each other with business opportunities; nevertheless, the bloc gradually became more interested in changing the path of international political order and became Group Seven’s (G7) main competitor. The G7 group includes the US, France, Canada, Japan, Italy, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

Two of the BRICS countries, China from Asia and Brazil from Latin America, revealed their intention to trade using their own currencies a few weeks ago, sparking global outrage. It was also regarded as the first move towards implementing the BRICS’ de-dollarization policy. Following this event, words that the BRICS members’ new proposal to create a common currency at their 2023 summit in South Africa emerged.

Prior attempts by the bloc’s member nations, as well as agreements by non-member nations such as Saudi Arabia to sell fuel to China in Yuan, have remained a source of concern for the United States. It remains to be seen what action the world’s economic powerhouse, the US, will take to lessen the impact of the repercussions. For the time being, rising economies are plotting to dethrone its currency’s dominance in the global market.

During a recent joint press conference with Uzbekistan’s President, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, El-Sisi made a similar attempt. He stated that Ethiopia and his country should reach a legally binding agreement on the issue of GERD.

El-Sisi wasted no time in emphasizing the significance of a legally binding agreement between Ethiopia and the two downstream countries, Sudan and Egypt, to control the dam’s filling and operation.

Egypt’s Foreign Minister, Sameh Shoukry, has been outspoken about GERD. He has accused Ethiopia of violating his country’s rights to legally binding commitments made in meetings with UN officials and in other regular occasions.

Egypt’s efforts to exert political influence over Ethiopia increased in March 2023. Shoukry warned Ethiopia that “all options are open.” Ethiopia’s government disapproved of the remark.

According to reports, the Arab League issued a resolution regarding the filling and operation of GERD in Ethiopia, which is solely funded by local financial resources. Office of the Ethiopian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson immediately responded to the League’s decision, claiming that the Ethiopian government is “dismayed.”

For Yacob Arsano (PhD), a renewed expert in hydro-politics and regional integration as well as a member of the Ethiopian GERD negotiating team, the pressure from Egypt is nothing new, as it has been a trend since the beginning over a decade ago.

“There have always been influences, and it is an annual trend,” Yacob explained to The Reporter. “Their most recent interaction with the Arab League was part of their efforts to put pressure on the recent United Nations Water Conference.”

Yacob believes that the League’s resolution, as well as Egyptian officials’ repeated claims, are intended to express their stance ahead of time and to exert influence on the first UN Water Conference, which took place two weeks ago in New York, United States.

Despite the fact that it was unsuccessful, Egypt’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Hani Sewilan, exaggeratedly stated during the March 22–24, 2023 conference that the dam Ethiopia is building is “oversized” and poses a threat to the people of Sudan and Egypt with “disastrous effect.”

Sharing his event experience on social media, Ethiopian Ambassador to the United States Seleshi Bekele (PhD-Eng.) stated that the Ethiopian delegation was successful in reversing Egypt’s diplomatic narrative against the GERD.

Seleshi’s successor as Minister of Water and Energy, Habtamu Itefa (PhD-Eng), Ethiopia’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Tesfaye Yilma (Amb.), and Seleshi himself comprised the team.

“We defended Ethiopia’s interests and refuted false accusations against GERD,” Seleshi tweeted after the conference concluded.

Aside from diplomatic pressures, Ethiopian officials condemned what the North African country was doing in what appeared to be a dangerous situation in the same month. Shoukry stated that his country would “defend the interests of its people.”

Shoukry warned Ethiopia during a joint press conference in Cairo following the visit of Kenya’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Alfred Mutua, to consider the interests of both his country and Sudan and ensure that the dam will not cause serious damage.

Nonetheless, he stated that if this is not met, “the Egyptian state will undoubtedly defend the interests of its people and take measures that lead to that.” A week later, the same minister was heard telling local media that “all options are open and all alternatives remain available,” implying that his country is prepared to take any action.

The Ethiopian government did not disregard Shoukry’s warnings. The Foreign Ministry issued a statement three weeks ago, describing how the claims pose a threat to the country and violate a number of principles and declarations. The statement urged Egyptian officials to refrain from making such claims.

The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged all concerned to “take note of Egypt’s flagrant violations of international relations principles” in order to alert the world to the new development that is taking shape. “Threats and intimidation can advance no interest,” the statement adds.

Yacob appears to be confident in Ethiopia’s response to Egyptian officials’ accusations and intimidation. He urges Egypt to demonstrate cooperation in order to achieve peaceful regional integration and better cooperation. As far back as Yacob can remember, there have been threats from downstream countries as a result of Ethiopia’s dam project. However, he urged the government to investigate whether the Egyptian side has plans or is instilling fear.

Egypt’s latest move to put pressure on Ethiopia’s government comes as the dam is reportedly nearing completion. Approximately 90 percent of the dam’s construction is now complete, and the fourth filling is scheduled to begin in a few months.

A group of 33 signatory associations of Ethiopians from all over the world issued a statement praising the dam’s progress a few days ago. According to the statement, the group supports “fair and equitable use of the Nile River” and urges the Egyptian side to “change its counterproductive posture and find a mutually beneficial agreement.”

The organizations requested their Egyptian counterparts, citizens, and authorities to join them “in the spirit of cooperation and work towards an agreement” that they described as fair and equitable for people living in the basin countries.

Despite Egypt’s attempts to draw Western and Arab countries into the GERD debate, the Ethiopian government has repeatedly called for a solution through African Union (AU)-led negotiations.

Nonetheless, the AU-led negotiation has stalled since the last meeting, which was held exactly two years ago in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) by then-AU Chairperson Felix Tshisekedi. It remains to be seen whether negotiations will resume now that the AU has a new chairperson, President Azali Assoumani of the Comoros.

Concerned about the poor progress being made toward ratifying the Protocol on the movement of persons, trade experts, business leaders, and champions of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) from throughout the continent have once again gathered, this time in Nairobi, Kenya.

In the opinion of the experts who attended the two-day event, the sluggish ratification of the protocol is a major reason impeding the realization of the AfCFTA, whose implementation is aimed at increasing intra-African trade from 15 percent to 40 percent.

“It is important that African governments embrace the free movement of persons, as this would enable Africans to enjoy the full benefits of the AfCFTA,” Stephen Karingi, director of the Regional Integration and Trade Division of the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), said during the event held in Nairobi.

Practically every African nation recognizes that free movement of people throughout the continent is crucial to attracting foreign investment and expanding trade. Even more, in 2018, over 30 African countries signed the Free Movement of People Protocol in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. This was a move that was said to boost integration and speed up the implementation of the AfCFTA.

The protocol is an extension of the Abuja Treaty, which was signed in 1991 and was the legal document that established the African Economic Community. Many people had high hopes that following the launch of the new protocol, which happened four years ago, full ratification by member countries would not take very long.

Nonetheless, four years have elapsed since the protocol’s approval by the majority of members, despite the fact that only a small minority of countries have fully ratified it. Rwanda, Niger, So Tomé and Principe, and Mali are the only nations out of the thirty that signed the treaty in January 2018 that have fully ratified it.

The state of ratification is disheartening, according to Karingi.

An investigation into the factors that contribute to the slow ratification of the agreement has been carried out jointly by the African Union and the ECA. Member nations have downplayed the significance of free movement of persons, and the study also found that there is a lack of political will to ratify the protocol, according to its findings. Security and health concerns raised by free movement of people are another factor discouraging African countries from ratifying the agreement, per the report.

“While some of the concerns around ratifying the Protocol were valid, policymakers and African citizens should be made aware of the support available to address some of the technical concerns raised,” said Karingi.

24 African countries, or 44 percent of the continent, offered e-visas for Africans in 2022, up from nine African countries, or 17 percent of the continent, in 2016, according to the AU’s Visa Openness Report. A study showed that countries with complicated visa processes are losing the money that travelers bring.

Where countries have removed visa requirements, tourism and travel economies have thrived, it added. “Several of Africa’s richer countries appear to be concerned that once the protocol comes into force, they will experience a sudden influx of low-skilled economic migrants from poorer countries,” the AU report stated.

“Free movement of persons can be a catalyst for entrepreneurship and trade, providing employment opportunities and addressing poverty and inequality,” Karingi said. Seyceheless is the best example to prove what the Director said.

The Seychelles recorded an annual increase of seven percent in international tourism between 2009 and 2014 as a result of its visa-free access to all Africans.

The Director of Trade in Services, Investment, Intellectual Property Rights, and Digital Trade at the AfCFTA Secretariat, Emily Mburu-Ndoria, agrees.

“Trade and mobility on the African continent are intertwined, and the greater conditions for the mobility of workers have the potential to lower unemployment rates and promote integration and Pan-Africanism,” Mburu-Ndoria said.

For the Director, the gains and benefits from the AfCFTA trade outweigh these worries. “A balanced approach is required while dealing with the sensitivity of mobility relating to security, health, and the environment,” Mburu-Ndoria concluded.

Despite the coronavirus pandemic, which has been exacerbated by the European conflict, being one cause contributing to the aviation sector’s slowdown, Kenya’s situation is a little different. It is the result of an ongoing protest against the government of the country’s newly elected leader, Willima Ruto, alleging “economic mismanagement, corruption, and electoral fraud.”

Raila Odinga, who ran against Ruto in Kenya’s latest election in August, is leading the protest. Odinga, a 78-year-old Kenyan politician who served as Prime Minister of Kenya from 2008 to 2013, disagrees with the election results. Odinga ran in the election as a candidate for the Azimio La Umoja political party. The Azimio, under Odinga, not only contested the election results but also appealed to the Supreme Court.

Yet, contrary to his expectations, the Supreme Court denied his petition, ruling that there was insufficient evidence to determine that there was electoral fraud. Ruto’s victory was upheld by the court.

Odinga had previously stated that he would follow the Supreme Court’s rulings, but he has just made a new claim. Odinga claims to have won the election, citing an Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) whistleblower. Odinga, who claims he received 8.1 million votes to Ruto’s 5.9 million, wants the IEBC server unlocked to contest the final result, which decided President Ruto received 7.1 million votes to Odinga’s 6.9 million votes.

While the election outcome is one of the reasons for the latest demonstration in Kenya, the continuous process of recruiting IEBC commissioners is the second issue that has prompted Odinga and his followers to protest.

Odinga is dissatisfied with the president’s decision to elect new commissioners completely on his own. He requested that the recruitment cease. If the recruitment process is allowed to be continued this way, voter apathy might happen in the election to be held in 2027. Voters would be disinterested from exercising their democratic right to elect a new leader if Ruto is allowed to recruit the commissioners by his own, unchecked.

Another source of worry for Odinga is the growing cost of living in Kenya. The high cost of living has been a cause of concern for a great number of Kenyans, as evidenced by the fact that a great number of households are having difficulty making a decent living. In Kenya, where the year-over-year consumer price index reached 9.2 percent in February 2023, high food and fuel prices, rising taxes, and a weak currency are believed to be factors fueling inflation.

This is unacceptable to Odinga, who blames the Kwanza Alliance Administration under Ruto for failing to stem the rise in the cost of living despite seven months in power. He wanted Ruto to restart the subsidies the government was giving but had discontinued at the time when Uhuru Kenyatta was in office.

Odinga accused the government for the high price of staples such as maize flour, which has contributed to the high rate of inflation. Ruto, however, stated that measures are being taken to reduce inflationary pressure and that his administration is making efforts to lower the price of the locally known Unga flour from Sh100 per kilogram to Sh70 per kilogram.

Ruto also committed to solving the FX shortfall plaguing the economy and is regarded as one of the major drivers of inflationary pressure. He vowed that the scarcity will be eliminated in a matter of weeks and emphasized that his government is implementing new measures to eliminate the shortage.

Ruto stated, “I want to assure those in Kenya who were facing challenges in accessing dollars that we have taken steps to ensure its availability, and the next couple of weeks are going to be different because our fuel companies will now be paying for fuel in Kenya shillings,” Ruto said. As the issue is not merely economic but also political, it seems unlikely that the president’s assurance will prevent protestors from voicing their grievances in the coming week.

As a result of the demonstration during last Monday, one student was killed and more than 200 were detained.

“Fellow Kenyans, in the second phase of our protest, and in response to public demand, we shall now hold the protests every Monday and Thursday beginning next week,” Odinga announced on Tuesday while addressing journalists at the Jaramogi Oginga Odinga Foundation in Nairobi.