The Pretoria Peace Agreement, signed in November 2022, ended the Tigray war but excluded Eritrea from negotiations, a decision that sowed seeds of discord. The agreement mandated the withdrawal of foreign forces, including Eritrean troops, from Tigray and called for the disarmament of regional forces like the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s (TPLF) Tigray Defense Forces (TDF). However, Eritrea’s continued presence in parts of Tigray, particularly in border areas like Irob and Zalambessa, has become a flashpoint, with Ethiopia now accusing Eritrea of violating its sovereignty.
Ethiopia’s position on Eritrean troops in Tigray has hardened. On June 4, 2025, Dina Mufti (Amb.), a former spokesperson for Ethiopia’s Foreign Ministry and current member of the parliamentary Foreign Affairs Standing Committee, issued a statement demanding the immediate withdrawal of Eritrean forces. This marked a shift from Ethiopia’s earlier defense of Eritrea’s presence, which was based on claims that Eritrean troops occupied territories awarded to Eritrea by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) following the 1998–2000 border war. Dina Mufti’s statement, widely regarded as reflecting the official position of the Ethiopian federal government, warned that “continued violation of the territorial integrity, sovereignty, and unity of the state cannot be tolerated indefinitely.”
This change in rhetoric coincides with Ethiopia’s broader geopolitical ambitions, particularly Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s push for Red Sea access.
In January 2024, Ethiopia signed a controversial Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, to secure a port on the Gulf of Aden, where this agreement was killed by the successful diplomatic maneuverings of the Somalia and then through the mediation of the Turkey. Eritrea, which views Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions as a threat to its territorial integrity, responded by signing a security agreement with Egypt and Somalia, further escalating tensions.
Reports confirm that Eritrea is engaging with Debretsion Gebremichael’s faction of the “defunct” TPLF, raising serious concerns that Asmara intends to use Tigray as a strategic buffer zone or proxy battlefield against Ethiopia.
In a speech commemorating Eritrea’s independence, Presidet Isaias Afewerki expressed no remorse for past deliberate atrocities committed against the people of Tigray, a stance that has sparked outrage among Tigrayan elites, who criticize the TPLF leadership’s dismissive response as morally indefensible and its cadres as complicit. When questioned about Eritrea’s readiness in response to Ethiopia’s military buildup and potential declaration of war, Eritrean intelligence chief Abraha Kassa reportedly stated that he would leverage the “useful idiots in the south,” referring to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and its military wing, the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), to counter Ethiopia. This provocative remark underscores Eritrea’s intent to exploit the TPLF’s military capabilities as a proxy, heightening fears of a destabilizing conflict in the region. This provocative remark has intensified fears of a proxy war. Despite denials from Debretsion’s faction, reported meetings between TPLF leaders and Eritrean officials in Asmara since late 2024 lend credibility to suspicions of collaboration, heightening concerns about regional instability. Eritrea’s military mobilization in February 2025, including reservist call-ups and directives to citizens under 60, signals its readiness for conflict. In response, Ethiopia has deployed troops to the Eritrean border, raising the risk of direct confrontation.
Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea are rising, with growing concerns that Eritrea is manipulating the willful ignorant of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)—derisively labeled as “useful idiots” by Eritrean officials—to act as a proxy in a potential conflict. Ironically, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, despite his historical hostility toward Tigray, once relied on its unwavering support during Eritrea’s independence struggle—even as Western powers, particularly the United States, opposed secession.
Recently, Ethiopia’s National Election Board (NEBE) decertified the TPLF, yet its leadership continues to assert autonomy by seeking normalized relations with Eritrea and the Amhara Fano militia, (allegedly) without justifying how such moves benefit Tigray’s people. Legally, neither the Defuct TPLF nor Tigray has an authority to conduct foreign relations, a power purview exclusively for Ethiopia’s federal government. The TPLF’s unilateral actions constitute a direct challenge to national sovereignty, risking severe consequences for Tigray’s population.
Most alarmingly, young Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) soldiers must not be sacrificed as pawns for Eritrea’s interests or the TPLF’s reckless ambitions. Falling into this loyalty trap, akin to Stockholm syndrome, would only lead to further devastation. The people of Tigray deserve leadership that prioritizes their survival and future, not one that drags them into another cycle of conflict.
The people of Tigray now stand at a historic crossroads—facing both the burden of a painful past and the opportunity to reclaim their future. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), long associated with destruction and conflict, has irrevocably lost its legitimacy. Its decertification by Ethiopia’s National Election Board merely formalized what the people of Tigray had already rejected.
For too long, the TPLF sustained itself through military coercion rather than genuine popular support.Its reliance on the TDF created an illusion of strength, but like a fish out of water, the movement cannot survive once separated from the weapons and force that artificially propped it up. Without armed intimidation, the TPLF’s hollow political agenda holds no appeal for a people weary of war and hungry for peace, stability, and self-determination.
This is Tigray’s moment of reckoning. The path forward lies not in clinging to a discredited and defunct organization, but in building new institutions that truly represent Tigray’s interests—free from the cycle of violence and failed leadership. A promising alternative has emerged with the formation of a new political party The SOLIDARITY, alongside other opposition groups, offering a viable replacement for the TPLF. To safeguard their future, the people of Tigray must strip the TPLF of its military power, rendering it obsolete and powerless. Political, civic, and military leaders must unite to reject the TPLF’s manipulative influence and prioritize the region’s stability. Failure to do so risks reigniting the fires of war – fueled by Eritrea’s strategic interests and the TPLF’s reckless ambitions–ultimately jeopardizing the very existence of Tigray’s people.
Ethiopia’s pursuit of direct access to the Red Sea is a matter of vital national interest, grounded in historical legitimacy and legal precedent. A declassified U.S. memorandum from March 25, 1949, confirms that Dean Rusk, then U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for United Nations Affairs, and Italian Ambassador Tarchiani recognized Ethiopia’s rightful claim to a sea outlet. At the time, Italy explicitly supported ceding the port of Assab and parts of southern Eritrea to Ethiopia—a justifiable demand reflecting Ethiopia’s historical and geopolitical realities.
However, this legitimate claim was undermined in 1993 when Eritrea seceded under the orchestration of the TPLF, which dominated Ethiopia’s transitional government. This decision, made without a genuine democratic mandate, had devastating consequences for Ethiopia’s sovereignty, economic security, and regional influence.
Today, the TPLF leadership remains deeply fragmented and strategically incoherent, failing to advance the interests of the Tigrayan people or recognize the shifting regional dynamics. Instead of securing Tigray’s future, the TPLF has repeatedly aligned with Eritrea’s oppressive regime, sacrificing Tigray’s well-being in favor of short-term political maneuvering. No rational observer within the TPLF’s ranks can deny that its leadership is in complete disarray, making decisions that only serve the interests of Eritrea’s belligerent government at Tigray’s expense.
Ethiopia’s demand for Red Sea access is not merely a historical grievance—it is an economic and strategic necessity. The international community must recognize Ethiopia’s legitimate claim and support a resolution that ensures regional stability, mutual prosperity, and justice for all affected parties. Meanwhile, the “useful idiot in the South’s” reckless leadership threatens to drag Tigray’s people into a devastating proxy war, risking catastrophic consequences for their survival as a nation. The people of Tigray must reject this path to avert such an existential threat.
Mulat Gebreslassie is a seasoned legal professional with extensive experience in both the public and private sectors. He holds an LLB from Mekelle University and an LLM in International Economic Law from the University of South Africa, where he is currently completing his thesis. His has previously served as an Assistant Judge at the Federal Courts, a Lecturer in Law at Oromia State University, and a decade-long tenure as Head of the Legal Department at Share Ethiopia Flower Farm, a Dutch-owned company in Ziway. Currently, he works independently as a consultant and attorney at law.
Contributed by Mulat Gebreslassie
