By Sheikh Raage Said Haji Mohamed Zayli’iye

I feel a profound sense of obligation and a clear call of duty to speak frankly about the burgeoning oil and gas production in the Somali Region of Ethiopia, specifically concerning the Calub and Elele fields. Production is ramping up, and the planning for infrastructure—including oil and gas refineries and fertilizer plants—is firmly underway. With 10 billion-investment promises pouring in, the air is thick with the rhetoric of development and prosperity for the nomadic people of the Somali Region (DDS) and Ethiopia at large. But before we surrender to the euphoria of petrodollars, we must address the enduring echoes of history. Speaking truth to the power is duty and obligation upon us. This article is first series of article to highlight challenges and opportunities faced by Somali Nomads in Ethiopia to for inform, educate and advocate people in the power based on decades of observation and research.

For over a century, Somalis in Ethiopia have endured a reality shaped by wars, border conflicts, and systematic marginalization. The relative stability achieved since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Mustafe Omer came to power in 2018 was a welcome relief, marking a pause in active conflict and suffering. It was the absence of pain, not the presence of prosperity, that people first welcomed. Yet, in the quiet that followed the violence of the last regime, the cries of the victims—whose lives were shattered—still resonate in eternity. True justice for these historical wounds remains elusive, and this is the crucial challenge that defines this economic opportunity not to mention, underlying causes (policies and practices) persist.

People’s Stories and Voices

Over a century ago, a Somali elder tended his camel in Calub and at night when camel returns from grazing, he would sit in front of the camel camp. He would press his balm on the ground and say “either the hell is very close beneath this site or there is a strange thing that burning beneath this earth” indeed he was on the mark, one of world’s largest gas deposits laid under his balm which impacted the security of his offspring for decade to come. lies ahead of us a chance to turn liquid of hell into fragrance of peace and prosperity.

I was indeed fortunate to volunteer and/or work in the humanitarian response operations in 2000 and 2022 playing critical role in saving lives and reduce pain and suffering in Shebelle, Liban, Afdheer, and Fafan zones. What I have witness in 2000 humanitarian operation in Dhanan and Godey of Shebelle zone left me painful memory and comparing to the Adheer and Liban zones drought in 2022 was very different when it comes to Somali Regional State response and coordination. In my last humanitarian emergency tenure, I have met a wise elder in small village I stayed overnight. After hours of conversation over fire in an open space watching stars, he asked me about the Calub and Elele Oil and Gas situation. it will start production and wealth shall descend upon us. He gave me this strange look and said, “the Ethiopia that brands our black headed sheep as a counterbond want to produce our gas and oil beneath earth for our benefit!”. I become puzzled and quite to reflect. The Ethiopia the successfully completed world-class GERD project, successfully operates and runs amazing institutions like Ethiopian Airline, Ethiopia Telecom, and Ethiopia Power Authority, and exports Café all over world is incapable to create market and effective value chain for DDS livestock is deliberate and gross neglect.

Risk Mitigation

The extraction of natural gas and oil from the Ogaden basin is not merely an economic project; it is a historic turning point. This moment offers Ethiopia a chance to leverage its untapped wealth to transition from conflict to shared prosperity. But this transition is deeply conditional. To understand the risks, we need only look at two cautionary tales. First, the Ogoni people in Nigeria’s Niger Delta endured catastrophic environmental devastation and saw peaceful protests met with brutal repression, all while their land yielded billions in oil wealth that provided them virtually no benefit. Between 1976 and 1991 alone, over two million barrels of oil were spilled in Ogoni land across nearly 3,000 incidents. The UNEP 2011 report found benzene levels in drinking water up to 900 times above WHO guidelines in communities like Ogane. Soil, groundwater, and surface water contamination is widespread, with some areas showing refined oil floating on groundwater. Already credible research by DDS diaspora scholar like Juweria found chemical pollutants in Calub that are linked to cause serious health issues including cancer among the local population. Livestock that is the key to the nomadic livelihood would be at risk if credible environmental safeguards are not place. The evidence thus far points such precautionary steps are not taken.

Second, and closer to home, the tragedy of Sudan and South Sudan offers a vivid lesson in state-level failure. Despite immense oil wealth, the lack of a strong social contract, transparency, and a mechanism for equitable revenue sharing plunged both nations into severe economic crisis and renewed civil conflict following South Sudan’s independence. The resulting disputes over pipelines and transit fees, coupled with rampant corruption that diverted billions from public coffers, crippled their economies and humanitarian systems. These two experiences serve as stark, indelible lessons: if development is not rooted in absolute transparency and equity, new wealth risks becoming a new source of conflict, turning a potential blessing into a resource curse that only perpetuates the cycles of marginalization that define the region’s past.

“Getting it right, no second chance” demands immediate, concrete actions that prioritize the people who have paid the highest price. The current opacity and secrecy surrounding the initial process—including the lack of public consultation and awareness-raising—are deeply concerning and must be reversed immediately. Firstly, accountability and justice must be actively sought, not deferred. While we build refineries, we must also build functional, impartial institutions that acknowledge past crimes and offer genuine closure. Secondly, the revenue- sharing mechanism must be made public, transparent, and legally binding, ensuring that a significant, ring-fenced portion of the profit directly benefits the local communities. Thirdly, the critical skills and capacity gap must be addressed head-on. The region’s high youth and nomadic population is currently unprepared to benefit from specialized employment and entrepreneurship; massive, targeted investment in technical, vocational, and business training, aligned with industry needs, must precede project hiring. Finally, the promises of infrastructure and jobs must be realized through genuine, bottom-up public consultation and stakeholder engagement, not top-down directives that bypass the very nomadic communities whose land hosts the wealth.

The global lesson from resource-rich regions is clear: natural wealth frequently fuels conflict where governance is weak, and history is ignored. The success of the Ogaden oil and gas venture in 2025 will not be measured by the cubic feet of gas produced, but by whether it finally closes the chapter on marginalization and environmental abuse. It is an opportunity to transform decades of historical pain into the foundation for a truly equitable future. We must use sense of obligation that this moment inspires to ensure that this wealth becomes a blessing for all, as appose to added source of burden to already people who endure more than their share of pain and suffering.

In DDS the political opposition is non-existent and the case of ONLF quarrels and self- destructions is good example. The ONLF faction in DDS is too weak to present policy paper on their view regarding the production of Ogaden Oil and Gas and the exiled wing in Nairobi are against everything. As usually the diaspora pundits are opposing the project while living and working in their respective countries with no regard to the issues at hand on the ground. We are yet to see credible proposal for action that considers and appreciates the complexity of context. So far, constructive engagement and discourse is missing, and DDS oil and gas project is existential to the very survival of our people. It is not either for or against it! The real issue isn’t why or if we going to it, but rather how we are going to do it. We should not be sidelined or kept in the dark to a project like Calub and Elele Gas, and Oil project implementation nor should we behave irresponsibly to miss the opportunity.

The way forward

Federal and regional leadership must communicate, educate and engage to the public regarding to the project vision and mission as well as create safe spaces for discussion and dialogue among community, diaspora and other stakeholders. It’s the responsibility of regional leadership to build trust, and consensus in support of the project based on clear and comprehensive plan of action for monitoring and measuring success in the future. Parameters and milestones for success based on shared vision, accountability, transparent, and social contract should be the bedrock for proposed implementation strategies. Private sector, international or otherwise, could be left alone to police themselves regarding pollution, environmental impact and corporate responsibility.

Furthermore, regional and municipal government authorities should have legal, policy and technical resources to fulfil their oversight role. The greatest challenge in Somali Region is deficiency of innovation, ingenuity and leadership in addressing multitude social, economic education, and governance and to petrodollars will result travesty and mediocracy.

Sheikh Raage Said Haji Mohamed Zayli’I is an Independent Researcher and Consultant based in Jigjiga Ethiopia. He has served as the CEO of the Somali–Ethiopian Social and Economic Development Association in Jigjiga. And as the executive Director of the Somali Center in Ottawa, Canada from 2001–09. Since 2013, he has led research and development initiatives in Mogadishu, Puntland and Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State.

Contributed by Sheikh Raage Said Haji Mohamed
Zayli’iye