Crossing over the back of the main dam of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), I walked alongside the late project manager, Engineer Simegnew Bekele, down to the gravel land leading to the saddle dam, where the artificial lake would later form. He was passionately explaining the engineering marvel underway. Under the scorching sun in Guba district, I saw heavy trucks and machinery roaring, the echoes of hammering and metal beats bouncing across the valley. The courage of the men and women working on-site was palpable.
Back at the expansive cafeteria built to accommodate the workforce, I asked the Engineer a simple, innocent question about what I had observed. He paused for nearly a minute, and we sat in silence. Then he launched into a detailed, 40-minute explanation of the hows and whys – only to continue even further when I tried to assure him it was just curiosity, not criticism. That moment left me with more questions than answers.
This was nearly a decade ago. Back then, Abay (the Blue Nile) was being harnessed by engineering, carving its path through ancient landscapes, whispering tales of life, strife, and hope. At its edge now stands Ethiopia’s boldest testament to ambition yet: the GERD.
Why the Dam Matters?
The GERD is far more than a hydroelectric project. It is a symbol of national resilience, a source of pride as Ethiopia charts a path from scarcity to light, both literal and metaphorical. At the same time, it has become a focal point of intense hydro-political contention across the Nile Basin, drawing global attention and even becoming part of international peace and security debates. From its inception in 2011, GERD was never intended as a threat, but as a promise. Ethiopian officials, experts, and public diplomats have consistently emphasized this vision. And yet, the project took more than double the initial completion timeline. It was born amid the Arab Spring and faced internal political challenges at home, marked notably by the mysterious death of Engineer Simegnew and significant cost overruns. Though seen domestically as a monument of unity, hope, and renaissance, it was not free from internal debates, and accusations.
Despite delays, the GERD began generating electricity in 2022. For Ethiopia, where over 65 million people still lack access to electricity, the project is a lifeline. It promises not only to address this acute shortage but also to empower Ethiopia’s regional ambitions through energy exports to neighboring and Nile Basin countries. Once all turbines are operational, Ethiopia expects to increase its electricity generation capacity to 9,000 megawatts (MW), up from the current 7,910 MW. The stakes are high and the message is clear. From dimly lit classrooms to candlelit homes, the voices echoing through the valleys reaffirm why the dam matters.
Today, as the GERD stands complete and operational poised to become Africa’s largest dam with a capacity of over 5,000 MW, it effectively doubles Ethiopia’s electricity supply and positions the country as a regional energy leader. Yet, this achievement has not come without friction. Years of negotiations have failed to yield a lasting agreement ensuring Ethiopia’s upstream rights while addressing the concerns of downstream countries of Egypt and Sudan. For Egypt, the Nile is an umbilical cord of survival. For Ethiopia, the GERD represents more than kilowatts on a grid. It is a lifeline to development, a catalyst for industry, and a redefinition of regional identity. While Ethiopia now faces the enormous task of expanding transmission and distribution infrastructure, the GERD remains a beacon of shared hope if it is shepherded with trust, transparency, and goodwill. But for that hope to endure, one element is non-negotiable. That is trust!
Charting the Future: Building Trust Drop by Drop
The Nile continues to flow through contested terrain. Egypt, deeply reliant on the Nile waters, has voiced strong opposition against the dam. Its officials have now and then labeled Ethiopia’s actions “unlawful,” accusing it of violating international law through unilateral moves. Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly urged Ethiopia to reach an agreement that guarantees no harm to Egypt, emphasizing that development is welcome but not at the cost of Egypt’s “water rights”. Yet, this notion of “water right” remains debatable as it in a way denies the water right of upstream nations.
A flicker of cooperation emerged in 2015 with the signing of the Declaration of Principles (DoP) on the GERD. This historic agreement laid out ten key principles: equitable use, regional integration, sustainability, dam safety, data sharing, and the commitment to avoid harm to others. Former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn echoed his optimism, declaring the GERD a shared opportunity not a threat and affirming Ethiopia’s commitment to mutual benefit and non-harm. He resisted third-party arbitration, instead championing dialogue among the three countries. Similarly, Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi hailed the agreement as a “new era of love and trust,” while Sudan’s then-President Oumar Hassan Bashir called it “an unprecedented historic achievement.”
Hailemariam promoted GERD not only as a hydroelectric generator but also as a model for sustainable and equitable resource use, especially amid rising climate challenges. His predecessor, the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who laid the foundation stone for the dam, framed the project as a regional initiative benefiting all, particularly Egypt and Sudan, calling on all Nile Basin countries to “turn over a new page of cooperation and solidarity.” Meles highlighted the dam’s potential to reduce silt, stabilize water flow, and improve downstream management technical benefits that could serve shared interests. And yet, the road to lasting Nile cooperation remains not as rosy as it seems.
As encouraging as the DoP was, its full and fair implementation required a robust institutional backbone. Now a basin-wide blueprint is in action – the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), a mechanism born from the decades-old Nile Basin Initiative (NBI). The agreement, which Ethiopia and several upstream nations formalized, aimed to promote “equitable” use of the Nile waters without the veto privileges of Egypt and Sudan. As of late 2024, the CFA formally entered into force, establishing the Nile River Basin Commission (NRBC) to steer shared governance. Reaffirming his predecessors’ stance on the GERD, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed also called on Egypt and Sudan to join the “Nile Family.” He cast a vision of unity through shared progress, shared energy, and shared water.
What lies ahead is clear in its duality: a choice between contention or cooperation. Will Egypt and Sudan step forward to join the cooperation and open up for a progressive agreement, honoring both water security and shared development? Will Ethiopia and the other upstream countries continue to translate their infrastructural achievements into genuine diplomatic outreach?
Egypt’s hypersensitivity over the Nile waters is understandable, given its reliance almost entirely on the Nile for its freshwater needs. However, Cairo also deserves appreciation for its latest attempts towards exploiting other sources of freshwater, including seawater desalination that targets producing 10 million cubic meters of desalinated water per day within the next five to six years.
Hence, the articulation shall continue in promoting a path forward grounded in regional partnership. The call should be for cooperation over confrontation and trust over suspicion, laying the groundwork for a shared future where the Nile becomes a bridge among nations, not a barrier. If the basin nations can embrace that ethos, the Nile’s waters may nourish, not conflict, but a shared, flourishing tomorrow.
Kiram Tadesse is researcher on the GERD and Transboundary Water Resource Management.
Contributed by Kiram Tadesse
