The revocation of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)’s legal status as a political party by the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) this week marks a significant turning point in Ethiopia’s already volatile political landscape. Once a dominant force in the ruling coalition of Ethiopia’s federal government, the TPLF’s fall from grace, the ensuing conflict, and subsequent peace process have led to this dramatic political move. While some may see TPLF’s deregistration as an attempt by the federal government to assert its control and restore order, the revocation raises serious concerns about the future of political inclusion, national unity, and the implementation of Ethiopia’s fragile peace agreement.
In November 2020, Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region became a battle ground for one of the most devastating conflicts in Africa’s recent history. The war between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the federal government in Addis Ababa, and allied regional forces from Amhara and Eritrea led to the catastrophic loss of life, displacement of millions, and widespread humanitarian suffering. Amid this turmoil, the Pretoria Agreement, brokered in November 2022 by the African Union, brought hopes of peace, stability, and reconciliation. The Pretoria Agreement, officially known as the Agreement for Lasting Peace through a Permanent Cessation of Hostilities (COHA), was a landmark ceasefire agreement between the federal government and the TPLF, which had been the de facto ruling party in Tigray until the war. The agreement outlined steps for disarmament, the restoration of services, unhindered humanitarian access, and the reintegration of Tigray into Ethiopia’s federal structure. The revival of the peace process, though fragile, symbolized a commitment to dialogue and reconciliation after years of violent conflict. However, the recent move to revoke the TPLF’s legal status as a political party has introduced new obstacles, threatening to unravel the delicate peace that the agreement sought to establish.
TPLF has decried the revocation as an act that fundamentally violates the validity and integrity of the Pretoria Agreement, describing NEBE’s decision as a “unilateral” move by the federal government that recasts an essentially political issue as a technical or administrative issue. The NEBE cited TPLF’s failure to abide by the electoral law of 2024 that required the latter to re-register as a political party following the Board’s initial decision to de- register it in January 2021, to justify its decision. TPLF though vehemently argues that the peace deal imposed on the two sides the duty to recognize each other’s legitimacy, adding the deal reinstates its pre-war legal status de facto, making re-registration a moot point. In recent months both parties have been trading vitriolic accusations, blaming one another of spreading divisive rhetoric and actively sabotaging the fragile peace prevailing in Tigray.
The revocation of the TPLF’s legal status as a political party undoubtedly has sweeping political and symbolic consequences. The Pretoria Agreement was a hard- fought compromise, and its success relied on the continued existence of TPLF as a viable political force. Its de-registration thus challenges the very essence of the agreement and leaves it in a limbo, casting serious questions over its sustainability and implementation. It also risks eroding the trust that had been cautiously built during the negotiation process, potentially reigniting conflict in Tigray, where the TPLF still holds significant support. Excluding the TPLF from the political landscape could prompt it to return to violence to achieve its objectives, destabilizing the region and the nation once again and leading to a breakdown of the peace process. On the humanitarian front the sudden disappearance of TPLF from the political scene is likely to create a governance vacuum, hindering the efficient coordination of humanitarian and reconstruction efforts. This would slow down the recovery process for millions of civilians, undermining the goals of the Pretoria Agreement to restore normalcy to the region.
Going forward several key measures need to be undertaken to avert the destructive impacts that the revocation of TPLF’s legal status could induce. First and foremost, the Ethiopian government and TPLF should display a genuine desire to sit down and thrash out their differences as regards the TPLF’s de-registration. This calls for a transparent dialogue facilitated by international actors, particularly the African Union (AU), given the critical role it played in brokering the Pretoria Agreement. Its continued involvement in monitoring the implementation of the agreement will be vital to ensuring that the peace process remains on track. The world’s attention must remain focused on Ethiopia as the success or failure of this process will have profound implications for the entire Horn of Africa region and beyond.
